Ukrainian troops at the scene of a separatist mortar attack near Sloviansk, Ukraine on May 11, 2014. Ukraine Ministry of Defense photo
How Ukraine’s Arsenal Matches Up Against The Russian-Backed Separatists’ -- Robert Beckhusen, Reuters
On Nov. 18, several rockets fired from a separatist Grad launcher slammed into an apartment building in the eastern Ukrainian town of Toshkovka. It was another shelling in what’s become an almost daily event — as both sides in Ukraine’s civil war turn to heavier weaponry to shift the battle in their favor.
But no soldiers were harmed in this shelling. Instead, three civilians died and four others — including two children — were wounded. It was more than four miles behind the front line, which formed after pro-Russian militants threw Ukrainian troops back during a heavy August counteroffensive.
The separatists now control a 200-mile stretch of territory from the Black Sea to the Russian border. This includes the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, two of the three largest cities in eastern Ukraine. Still, it’s a precarious situation for the militants seeking to create a state-within-a-state.
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My Comment: The short answer is no .... the Ukraine army may have more men, but they definitely do not have the weaponry to overwhelm the rebel army in the east. Another problem for the Ukraine military is that they are operating in a region where many of the locals are openly hostile to Kiev. This is fertile ground for pro-Russian rebels to conduct asymmetrical warfare, and it would not surprise me if the bulk of the casualties for the Ukraine military are now coming from this type of warfare. As for Russian military support to the pro-Russian rebels .... it appears to be limited to basic equipment and supplies, guns, ammo, some tanks and artillery units .... but no heavy weaponry and definitely no air support. Throw in air-support, the dynamics on the ground would then shift immediately .... but so will the international repercussions for Russia if this is the course of action that they end up taking.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF NEWS THAT US NAVY WANT TO HAVE ODESSA PORT AS STAGING AREA FOR ITS NAVY
ReplyDeleteMore importantly, the Federalists are volenteers, willing to fight, with a Commanders who fight along side them and value their men.
ReplyDeleteThe Ukrainian Army is conscripts, most of whom don't want to be there, are used as cannon fodder in half assed "Political" campaigns by Commanders who could care less.
Only the Punative Battalions, are willing to fight, but they are underarmed, untrained, and are as much of a threat to Kiev, as they are to Donetsk.
Jay, I focused on the weapons .... but it is true .... the locals are fighting on their own home turf .... these Ukrainian soldiers are from the western part of the country, and most are not happy to be there.
ReplyDeleteAs to using Odessa as a home port for the U.S. navy .... I am very familiar with the city .... I wanted to live there once. The people who live there will not be happy seeing U.S. ships at port.