Members of the Islamic State group have admitted for the first time that they were defeated in the Syrian town of Kobane
Peter Bergen and Emily Schneider, CNN: Is U.S. coalition winning war vs. ISIS?
WNU Editor: According to Peter Bergen and Emily Schneider the campaign against the Islamic State has succeeded but only to a modest degree, and that "the introduction of American forward air controllers to call in precise U.S. airstrikes and of U.S. Special Forces embedded with Iraqi units on the front lines will ultimately be necessary if the goal of American policy is to defeat ISIS, rather than simply playing for a draw with the group, which is, de facto, the current Obama administration policy".
As to what is my take .... I am not even optimistic that even such a U.S. combat presence would make a difference in the long run. Iraq's sectarian split is now complete, and even if the Islamic State is defeated, Iraq will be facing and enduring a terrorist campaign that will probably last for years. In the meantime .... the U.S. coalition airstrikes continue.
Kobani was not the only nor first time IS has been defeated in battle, but this got the most attention from them all. I do not agree fully with you on your comment about how much different the US precedent make on the ground. I think it's really mean a lot, not by "force" actually, but helping the ones who fight step toward the right direction, optimise the logistical or communication part and coordinate their work with other groups, such as the Coalit. planes.
ReplyDeleteEven if Obama's strategy were a "shame" for the public, and made them as the ones who has no idea how wars work, I still think they made the decision they wanted, and got the expected result, so the plan actually worked as it's intended "mostly". So from their point of view they did a good job, only the public at home is the one who dissapointed to miss the real actions.
About what the future of this war will be, it's hard to say anything, IS lost a battle, not the war, and they are far from loosing it any soon, but they are on the path of destruction if they not change on their tactics and strategy (and they have planty of great possibilities even now). But the regular ground based fighting in the land of Syria and Iraq will be lost, it's only a matter of time.
On the other part of your comment, I do agree on a probably very high chance of a long therm terrorist/low level insurgency/suicide like warfare will come back to the daily life of Iraq. What will be the next step (or nail in the coffin of IS), it's hard to predict. In Syria, Der-er-Zor (and the souther side of the river) is geting liberated by SAA and local tribal units step-by-step, which is a very good start, and there is no sighn of changing here. In Iraq, the situation is a bit more difficult, mostly now, after some very important Kurdish/Iranian officer got killed, I expect a bit dropback on the advance of these guys but they will get over that and Tikrit/Mosul line will be liberated (even if partially) withing a year.
"IS lost a battle, not the war" - László
ReplyDeleteExactly
There Are Now 20,000 Foreign Fighters Fighting For The Islamic State
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2015/02/there-are-now-20000-foreign-fighters.html
Unless those guys are killed, interned or have a change of heart, IS is nowhere near finished.
All Obama can offer them is a "purple penguin" lifestyle and they will not take him up on it.