Members of the separatist self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic army collect parts of a destroyed Ukrainian army tank in Vuhlehirsk, about 10 km (6 miles) west of Debaltseve, February 16, 2015. REUTERS/Baz Ratner
Steven Pifer, Reuters: How to arm Ukraine without starting World War Three
The Feb. 12 Minsk II Ukrainian ceasefire agreement brokered by German Chancellor Angela Merkel is a fragile arrangement. Most analysts hold modest expectations. The past few days are proving them right.
Separatist and Russian forces have continued their attack on Ukrainian forces at Debaltseve, despite the ceasefire that supposedly took effect on Saturday. Separatist leaders assert the ceasefire does not apply there, while Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman claims that Moscow is not part of the conflict or the agreement.
President Barack Obama and other Western leaders continue to hope that the ceasefire will take hold. But if Minsk II unravels, as did the first Minsk ceasefire of last September, pressure will likely grow on the White House to provide greater military assistance — including defensive arms — to Ukraine.
WNU Editor: This analysis is flawed on so many levels that I do not even know where I can begin. First things first .... the Ukraine military has been trained to use Soviet/Russian era weapons .... to switch it to Western style arms and weapon systems will take time .... a lot of time .... with the best estimates saying two years. Talk about arming has already opened deep divisions within Europe and the U.S. .... supplying these weapons will only aggravate these relations. The U.S. may have the Atlantic Ocean between them and Europe, but Ukraine is within Europe, and it is the Europeans who will be dealing with the fallout .... something that they know too well. Russia has also not been helpful in this crisis .... and I know that they will see such a development as a start to a proxy war .... and they will respond in kind .... opening a Pandora's Box that we may all live to regret later on. There is also the crisis within Ukraine itself. For a population of 46 million people they are now living in an economy that has collapsed, a society that is deeply polarized, and a government that has shown itself unable and unwilling to implement necessary reforms and compromises. The last thing that this population needs right now is more weapons and more war .... but unfortunately many in Washington, Kiev, and in some European capitals .... this is exactly what they want.
LOOK NONE I REPEAT NONE OF THIS WOULD HAVE HAPPENED IF US GOV HAD NOT DONE A COUP THATS WHAT CAUSED THIS DEATH,DESTRUCTION EVEN THOU PREV PRES WAS CORRUPT THERE WAS NO WAR WAS THERE TILL US POPS IN WITH BRIBES AND LOOK WHAT THEYVE GOT IN RETURN WAR ,DEATH,ECONOMY IN CHAOS THIS IS RUSSIAS BACK YARD AND US STEPPED OVER THERE RED LINE UNLIKE OBAMAS RED LINES IF RUSSIA HAD HAD PUTIN IN EIGHTIES NONE OF BALTIC STATES BE IN NATOS HANDS SO IF US UPS ARMS SO WILL RUSSIA AND ALL UKRAINE END UP IN FLAMES
ReplyDeleteHey Peter go to Rusia if you like to be a slave ! In Ukraine, maidan whas the will of the people and not USA whill, Putin has started the war ! All people around the world now it ,from Africa to Australia , from Amazon to Danube ,get it !
ReplyDeleteUSA ALSO WITH SLAVES LOOK AT ALL PART TIME WORKERS MILLIONS OF THEM THE WILL OF PEOPLE COME ON ITS KNOWN FACT THEY WERE BEEN PAID TO STIR UP TROUBLE AND POOR UKRAINE PEOPLE TOOK IT MOST COUNTRIES HAVE SLAVE LABOUR ANYWAY AND TO YOUR LAST POINT ONLY BECAUSE US CONTROLS MEDIA WORLD WIDE THEY BELIEVE IN ANY THING THEY SAY ALTERNATIVE MEDIA LIKE BLOGS IS WERE REAL NEWS IS US STARTED PUTSCH,COUP WHAT EVER U WANNA CALL IT THEY DID IT AT COST OF 5 BILLION
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteWOW ...i mean wow ,how much vodka did you drink to come to that consideration ?
ReplyDeleteYou are one of those guys that belief Putin and his Rusia are a F..k Saints,the world peace bringer right ?
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteMoA has an analysis up:
"Many "western" journalist are no streaming into Debaltsevo and their will soon be reports about the real disaster and the real losses the Ukrainian government troops had there. Those will be hard to hide.
It will then be difficult for the "west" to continue working with Poroshenko. He has now been shown to be completely off his rockers. He can no longer be sold to the public as the bearer of the truth, the sincere white knight against the dark forces of Russia.
How will the "west", Obama and his neoconned State Department react to that? Will they prepare a coup against Poroshenko or do they have other means to get rid of their useless puppet or to save the situation?"
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2015/02/obamas-dilema-after-debaltseve-what-to-do-about-poroshenko.html#comments
Thank you for the heads-up Jay. I have been patiently waiting for western journalists to go in and assess the damage. I personally fear on what happened to the civilian population who were trapped in this enclave for the past week. Social media reports (in Russia ... not Ukraine) are painting a very grim picture.
ReplyDeleteWNU,
ReplyDeleteRe header photo:
Make it black and white and you could easily think Feb 18, 1942.
James,
DeleteThere is an untranslated NRA combat vid on the web of a column to one of the blocking towns west of Debaltseve, in which "Misha", the late 60's bearded commander, stops his unit by the side of the road,
Where there is a small memorial by the side of the road, from 1943, where the Red Army stopped a Nazi armoured attack.
"Misha" mentions his Dad is buried there.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteI don't hold out for a lot of " truth" from Western Reporters, other than perhaps about the extent of the damage and the Ukraine Military losses.
I've been reading the Guardian, Reuters, AFP, NYT and BBC articles and they all interviewed the same 6 guys.
The WSJ interviewed a 7th, who claimed that things were fine up until 2 days ago, because the " militias" wern't fighting the UAF, they were fighting each other over the villages, but then suddenly, " the Russians" attacked.
An AFP video report had a voice over about the " orderly withdrawl" shot at the entrance to Artemivisk, while camera footage recorded shot up vehicles, blood on truck beds, APC's towing crippled APC's and even a shot of a URAL truck crawling along, bare rims on pavement.
Jay .... now you know why I prefer living in Canada rather than Ukraine or Russia .... too much family history is over there .... and that is the case for everyone who is there .... especially in eastern Ukraine..
ReplyDeleteWNU Editor,
DeleteWhile there has been some " housecleaning" in the Republics, I havn't heard of any Militia on Militia fighting.
I think that the "guy" the WSJ interviewed, had no idea of what was going on, and had been heavily propagandized as to what was happening.
There was a Vice News interview in the fall, with members of Azov, who claimed that the LPA was only interested in taking back the small villages infront of Gorkolova, for the large amounts of cash, gold and silver jewelry the residents had buried there, before fleeing in the summer.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteI'm a little curious as to how for the separatists are going to chase the Ukrainians. On the face of it, you could say as far as they wanted to, but I don't think they can, nor would that be wise. Still I'd say they could for quite a ways. What Poroshenko and the current rulers of Kiev absolutely don't want is the troopies retreating pell mell all the way back into the area of Kiev itself. The current government of Kiev is hanging by a thread and any military group that they don't control is a mortal danger to them. So we shall wee how events unfold. The Ukrainians now know they have been abandoned by the EU and the US, their armed forces are shattered and scattered, there are large armed para national groups roaming the country, what ccould go wrong?
James,
DeleteI think we will see a pause,
Russia does not want a broken Ukraine, they want a Federalized Ukraine, not in NATO. Funny thing is, a Federalized Ukraine was one of the Euromaiden demands.
The EU, US and Porshenko will probably be left alone, ( if they pull back the heavy equipment), to deal with the political fallout of the loss and the coming economic storm.
The DPA and LPA will dig in, rearm, reform, focus on economic issues, and wait.
The EU will push Porshenko to purge Yats and the "Nationalists", give up on War, focus on reforms, and try to draw back in the Republics.
The US will probably push Yat's to purge Porshenko, build up the "Nationalists", continue to purge the Ukraine Government of people not "Nationalist" enough, rearm the UNA with a lot of new US Toys, and relaunch the "ATO", in the summer.
Militia on militia disputes were more prevalent in Luhansk than Donetsk ... especially last year .... but I have heard of no fighting between the groups this winter. They are all focused on driving the Ukrainian army out.
ReplyDeleteAs to gold, cash, and jewelry being buried ... . I doubt such hidden wealth exists. Eastern Ukraine has always been and is terribly poor .... which always make me mad because their work effort would put the Chinese to shame, and the energy resources in that part of the region are incredibly rich.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteOne of the recurring "Nationalist" myths, is that all that hard work and poverty, is the result of the "Wrong Kind" of people cheating and ripping off the "Right Kind" of people. It's a cornerstone of National Socialist economic theory, which being grounded in Ogliarchic Capitalism, mean's that it can't possibly be the UltraRich and the Government, but instead, some hated minority.
There was footage in the summer of the LPA evacuating these same villages, and I remember, one elderly woman desperatly clinging to three plastic bags, of clothes, photos, icons, and two aluminum pots, one frypan and a plastic wash basin, which couldn't be left behind, because it was all she owned.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteYes, there will be a pause, but where is the interesting question. Your last two paragraphs are a sure recipe for civil war (which I believe will happen regardless). Russia will not be too unhappy with a collapse of Western Ukraine. Putin would probably frame it as a salutary lesson of the folly to rely on the EU and/or the US. Plus he could say with some (he's been working this angle from day one) validity that the EU and the US are responsible for the Kiev's predicament and it's on them to economically rescue Kiev.
James,
DeleteIf Porshenko accepts the loss, reigns in the Nationalist Militias, pulls the heavy weapons back and stops shelling the Republican cities, towns and villages, then I think the lines will settle about where they are.
But that's a lot for Porshenko to pull off in a few weeks, in his politically weakened state.
There is aleady a Civil War, of West vs. East, the big question right now, is will there be a Civil War in Western Ukraine.
IMHO, that's the dim lightbulb that went off in Merkel and Hollande's heads prior to Minsk II, and has been growing more and more brightly since then.
The question then becomes, when the Nationalists are killing Nationalists for Kiev, over who's not Nationalist enough, will the Republicans advance to the Dniper,
Or will the competing Nationalists try to carve Western Ukraine up into their own individual Feudal Kingdoms?
Or will EU pushback against the neo-cons, for leaving that burning bag of fecal matter on their front door, enough to stop US meddling?
Who knows at this point in time?
All we know is the ticking timebomb hasn't been in the east, since August.
The possibility of civil war in east Ukraine is (for now) remote .... but civil unrest/riots/strikes/etc. .... a real possibility. When Poroshenko warned of marshal law last week .... as we all know he was focused on imposing that on Western Ukraine .... not on the east. but what scares me most about western Ukraine are the huge enclaves of Russian dominated communities throughout the region. My family' ancestral home town is just south of Kiev and it is predominantly Russian .... but the rural parts surrounding it are Ukrainian. Tensions are rising .... predominantly coming from the Russian community who feel that they are now being treated as second class citizens (which they are). What happens when the Ukrainian nationalists start to raise the ante is anyone's guess .... but I do know that it is not going to be "pretty".
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of martial law .... ITAR-TASS is reporting that the legislation to amend it in the Ukraine parliament is moving forward .... http://tass.ru/en/world/778572
ReplyDeleteWNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteBy the Civil War in the East, I meant West vs. East, not East vs. East.
The Martial Law Law will be a test for Porshenko. If it passes, the EU/IMF/World Bank line of credit will slam shut,
And the Ukraine will be reliant on US funding, which has been pretty much empty promises so far.
Jay .... never underestimate how dumb these people are ....even screwing up billions in aid/loans/etc. because their egos demand some form of response to the disaster that has just unfolded.
ReplyDeleteWNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteWhen the EU brokered the last minute transition deal, whick allowed Yanukovich to "straddle" Russia and the EU, getting aid from both,
Only to have Yanukovich couped,
I pretty much figured out how greedy and stupid " those people" are.
I know that you are aware of how dumb these people are .... but sometimes we forget on how REALLY DUMB they are. Unfortunately .... we both also know that it is unnecessarily costing lives and ruining others ... and on a massive scale.
ReplyDeleteOn a side note .... I sincerely hope that your predictions as outlined in this comments thread are wrong .... but my brain is saying that you are probably right.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteBest case, Merkel and Hollande force Porshenko,
Not gonna happen,
http://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/32292.html
Sadly, I can see this whole mess spirally so out of control, that with Greece and Spain, it blows up the EU and NATO.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteThis is what I've been saying now for several months about Western Ukraine. There will be a civil war there and could start at any time. I doubt Poroshenko could rein in a bad waiter at the moment. He's lost his military, his creditability, and the economy. The larger East-West war is essentially over for the moment except for specific operations (more on that later). The fight for power and the left overs in Eastern Ukraine now begins. The signs of this can be seen in the action and inaction of the Rada and of extra legal political/military orginizations. I expect Poroshenko to have a new address very soon, earthly if he is smart or otherwise if he isn't.
WNU: I don't really know what to say about your relatives/friends on the Kievian side, but get out. It's going to be very bad at least until the end of this summer. As far as help coming for this benighted area keep your eyes open for activity by the Poles. I realize there is shall we say a checkered history between the Poles and the Ukraine, but if anyone will be in a position to help the Western Ukraine it would be them, with some sort of understanding with Putin.