President Obama shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's King Salman at the start of a bilateral meeting at Erga Palace in Riyadh January 27, 2015. Credit: REUTERS/Jim Bourg
Wall Street Journal: Obama Parries Questions on Iran Deal From Arabs as Well as Israelis
Saudi Arabia, Egypt, others worry about regional arms race; new talk of extending U.S. ‘umbrella’
WASHINGTON—Arab governments are privately expressing their concern to Washington about the emerging terms of a potential deal aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program, according to Arab and U.S. officials involved in the deliberations.
The direction of U.S. diplomacy with Tehran has added fuel to fears in some Arab states of a nuclear-arms race in the region, as well as reviving talk about possibly extending a U.S. nuclear umbrella to Middle East allies to counter any Iranian threat.
Update #1: Arab nations said deeply worried by Iran nuke deal -- Times of Israel
Update #2: Arab Nations Concerned Over "Bad Deal" with Iran -- Breaking Israel News
WNU Editor: I do not know what is in the mind of the Saudi leadership .... but my gut is telling me that if Iran gets the deal that the Saudis think they will get .... I expect the Saudi Arabian government to start pursuing their own nuclear program .... and nuclear nonproliferation .... as we know it .... will be over.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteSaudi Arabia has a program.
It's actually quite funny.
India, which kicked Pakistani ass on a regular basis, out of National Hubris, went and got a bomb,
Pakistan of course, then had to get one.
And now, two nations, with major unresolved issues, one a major power, the other hovering on the status of a failed state,
Can't even work up a good border scrap, which takes almost all forms of war off the table, because of the nukes.
If Iran gets a bomb, and Saudi gets a bomb, we could be looking at,
peace in the Middle East.
You are correct Jay .... what I should have said was that the Saudis would double or triple down their program, and give it a higher priority than what they have. As to peace in the Middle East .... I am not that optimistic .... throughout the history of mankind there has never been real peace in the Middle East ... just lulls between the wars. And throw in the religion that consumes these nations .... ouch.
ReplyDeleteIf you cannot overtly conquer an enemy, it does not mean peace has come.
ReplyDeleteIt may mean you subvert them by degrees. You use proxies you subvert/use segments of their society that are unhappy and try bring down the edifice from within.
The USSR died and the US was left standing, my IMO the old USSR had the last laugh. The poison runs deep.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteWhile what India and Pakistan have is not really "peace", it's no where near the wars they used to fight, and the almost weekly border scuffles. They havn't gone tank on tank in over three decades.
Aside from the ISIS nutjobs, nobody in Government in the ME would use nukes, the threat of small wars and proxy wars spiralling out of control, would greatly reduce their sponsorship, ( a favorite Saudi tool), borders would be fixed ( unless negotiated), Command and Control would have to be solidified and professionalized, ( can't have a Saudi Prince with Daddy issues with the keys to the family nuke), and Transparency and Verification, would have to become standard.
There were 2 or 3 dozen proxy wars between the U.S. & the USSR.
ReplyDeleteTibet & Ukraine were 2 of those places.
Aizino,
ReplyDeleteYup, but no nuke on nuke, and Pakistan/India is a good example of how the proxy wars would continue to play out.
The ISI kept the Kashmir Groups constantly small and splintered, so they could never become a Taliban or ISIS and break free of control of the ISI. the IRG did the same with the Baleuch groups.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteThe ISI also created and had control for a time of Hemmatyar. Yet now he takes money form Iran.
The Taliban was an ISI creation. How well did the ISI control them. the Taliban became the protectors of Al Qaeda.
You start scratching the surface of various German tribes and invasions during the Roman empire and you see many leaders that had Roman military training. 200 or 300 years before the end these tribes would get as far as north Italy and northen Spain.
Maybe you are laboring under normalcy bias?
Heckyeryar and the Taliban, were used against Afghanistan, who didn't have nukes, not against India, who did have nukes.
ReplyDeleteAgainst India, the ISI used a motley mix of 28 different groups, never allowed them to merge, and once any one group got illusions of grandeur, the other groups were set on them. The Pak Kashmiri groups actually killed more of each other, than Indians or Kashmiri beyond the LOC.
It's a low grade PIA, but it's not a "war".
The cynicism of the Cold War Proxy Wars is best illustrated by the Coup in South Yemen, and the rapproachment in North Yemen.
The US and the Soviet Union promptly switched sides, and the US and the USSR fleets waved at each other as they passed, heading to their new ports.
The biggest changes are internal. You can't have Nuclear Weapons and a Bandar Bush in charge of the Saudi Military, or an IRG hothead in Iran.
You have to creat peer to peer military networks and open transparency, so that Exxon moving drilling rigs out to a new site in the desert, isn't taken to be a preemptive strike.
Over time, in Normal Nations, this leads to a reduction in tensions, some cooperation, sometimes, even trade and normalization, (India and China).
Pakistan is an abberation, as between the division, wars, military coups, the Tribal Areas, the only real "nationalism" built in Pakistan, is "anti-India".
"You have to creat[e] peer to peer military networks and open transparency, so that Exxon moving drilling rigs out to a new site in the desert, isn't taken to be a preemptive strike.'
ReplyDeleteThat is a good thing. With all that coordination there are still false radar alerts.
"Over time, in Normal Nations, this leads to a reduction in tensions, some cooperation, sometimes, even trade and normalization, (India and China)."
India & China became friendlier because socialism & communism did not work and they were basket cases. if they got much weaker they could be dismembered like China after the Arrow Wars.
The cultural revolution literally trashed the Chinese Academic system. china sent people overseas because they literally had no choice.
If you think the revolutionary or partisan fervor cannot be maintained or grow worse, one only has to look at Mao cooking up the Cultural Revolution. I know very well what crap that was and what leaders will do to stay in power.
I have seen how over the top 'patriotic' some Chinese are at a black tie event like an opera. Damn fool was as enthusiastic as those people, who enlisted at the start of WW1 on all sides and he was educated. Tickets are not cheap.
Obama looks so gay in these photos that it makes me sick to my stomach.
ReplyDelete