Chinese dredging vessels are purportedly seen in the waters around Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, in this still image from video taken by a P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft and provided by the United States Navy on May 21, 2015.
Michael Holtz, CSM: China plans blunt move into 'open seas,' warns foreign powers not to meddle
In a new strategy unveiled today, the South China Sea continues to be a potential flashpoint for China and its neighbors, and between Washington and Beijing.
China outlined on Tuesday a strategy to expand the reach of its military, as it continues to press its territorial claims in the South China Sea. The strategy came amid a series of louder warnings to the United States to divert its military presence in the area.
The Chinese Navy will shift its focus to "open seas protection" rather than "offshore waters defense" alone, according to a policy document issued by the State Council, China’s government cabinet. Meanwhile, China's air force will shift its focus from territorial air defense to "both defense and offense.”
The new plan threatens to escalate tensions in a region already closely watching the extent of Beijing’s maritime ambitions. The State Council criticized neighboring countries that take “proactive actions” on reefs and islands claimed by China.
WNU Editor: This Chinese plan and strategy has been in the works for a long time .... and what China is going to do next is even more predictable. As soon as a major airport in one of these "reclaimed" islands is operational, China will announce an air defense zone .... and they will enforce it. They will confront all aircraft .... and they will be aggressive about it. And while the western media focus is on U.S. - China positions in this dispute .... China sees the U.S. as a distant threat .... it is their neighbors and what they may do that concerns China. But it still serves China's interest to push back against the U.S. .... hence these new warnings .... Xi may cancel US visit in event of South China Sea incident (WantChinaTimes).
Will this be China's Crimea? For a price too high to pay and the latest international pariah? Why not talk it through? Unless the reason has nothing to do with south China Sea territories but rather as a way for the party in power to distract the home audience.
ReplyDeleteChinese nationalism was something that the Chinese communists always suppressed. But it is rearing its head now, and the Beijing government is exploiting it for their own purposes. Their stance on the South China Sea is genuine .... they have made is a national security issue and saving face .... it is not for distracting the home audience.
ReplyDeleteWNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteTip for you, China related.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/05/25/the-bombing-of-the-chinese-embassy-in-belgrade-in-1999-reconsidered/
I think the communist government is tapping into the nationalist undercurrent as a distraction from some of the internal conflicts that have been suppressed. The capitalist-communist co-existence cannot last forever. Their aggressive position with these artificial islands is untenable both militarily and politically. Why create an issue out of it now? It's not like anyone is threatening their lines of energy supply. They will regret this, just like Putin in Ukraine. It will fuel an anti-China alliance.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the link Jay.
ReplyDeleteJim Brown .... China has always had problems with its neighbors .... and in their eyes the South China Sea belongs to them. If it takes a hundred years to make this a fait accompli .... so be it .... and no ... they will not regret it because they do not care. They are the regional super-power, and countries will have to deal with Beijing even if they disagree with everything that they are doing. Beijing knows that .... and guess what .... so do their neighbors.
I should also add that internal dissension has always been a problem in China. I saw it in China when I lived there in the 1980s .... and I predicted an uprising a year before the Tienanmen massacre. But China is a far different country today .... and far more calmer. Economics is the priority for everyone .... and the South China Sea dispute is not only a nationalistic one, but also a national security issue and an economic one.
ReplyDeleteThe same can be said about Crimea. Russians have dominated that peninsula for hundreds of years .... and it is a national security issue for Moscow. But the nationalists who took over Kiev last March did not see it that way ... they miscalculated badly, and now everyone .... Ukrainians/Russians/etc. .... everyone is suffering because of it.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDeleteIf I had to guess, I'd say that this China's plan to counter the Piviot to Asia, in the short term, while China continues to shift from a brown water Navy to a blue water Navy.
In the initial stages of a conflict, these "bases" project power deeper into the sea, and absent a conflict, they make USN operations more difficult.
I concur Jay. China is looking at the long term. They know (and believe) that time is on their side. But I have always found that their weakness is "saving face". They can be easily provoked .... both individually and nationally .... if they feel that they will lose respect and/or have been disrespected .... i.e. losing face. When I worked there I had fun with this understanding. Case in point .... I always remembered how my Chinese hosts always making fun of Soviet cars and that their Toyota vehicles were far more reliable. But when I pointed out to them that Toyota cars were made in Japan, and considering what they did in the Second World War, was it "proper and right" to have a fleet of them in the parking lot. I will never forget the "down look" that the mayor of Quanzhou and his staff gave me when I pointed this out .... he had lost face and he felt ashamed when I reminded him of this. But my skill as a diplomat was to always quickly recover the situation by throwing in a positive .... in short .... I always made sure that this loss of face never happened. Diplomatically speaking.
ReplyDeleteThis is why the South China Sea dispute is fascinating. Everyone has positioned themselves to not lose face .... and everyone is reminding everyone else what would happen if face is lost .... but that is the problem .... there is no one in the dispute that can mediate and smooth the crisis so that no face is lost. The leader from Taiwan is trying to do that right now .... but it it too late and too little. And as for U.S. policy .... sighhhh .... the ones who are making it have no understanding on how important this cultural component is to the foreign policy decisions that are now being made in Beijing .... because losing face is something that many in Washington practice everyday.