Is A U.S. - China Conflict About To Eplode In The South China Sea?

Mischief Reef in the Spratly Islands, among the many disputed specks of land in the South China Sea, in a shot taken by a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon surveillance jet. Photo: Reuters

The Independent editorial: An extremely dangerous conflict is brewing between the US and China in a tiny archipelago in the South China Sea

Where lies the greatest potential for disaster in this ever more disordered world? In Russia’s efforts to rebuild its former empire? In the chaos of the Middle East, or the chronic instability of a nuclear-armed Pakistan? Conceivably, none of the above. A case can be made that the biggest danger is represented by a semi-submerged archipelago in the South China Sea called the Spratly Islands, object of a confrontation between China and the US and America’s regional allies that without wisdom and restraint could escalate beyond control.

The stakes, even by a purely material reckoning, are exceptionally high. The tiny islands sit astride a shipping route carrying $5trn of trade a year. The waters that surround them contain rich fishing grounds and, almost certainly, major reserves of oil and other resources. The dispute over the Spratlys, where China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims of maritime sovereignty, goes back decades. But only recently, with the increasingly assertive and nationalistic policies of Beijing, has it gone critical.

WNU Editor: What does not help the situation are developments like this .... China breaks ground on lighthouse project in South China Sea (Al Jazeera). But what will really raise tensions and provoke a backlash is if China (as I predict) will do this .... China raises prospect of South China Sea air defence zone (Financial Times). China is already declaring parts of the South China Sea as Chinese sovereign territory .... China publicly defends Spratly Islands as sovereign territory (UPI). But announcing an air defense zone would be China's way of declaring the entire South China Sea as sovereign Chinese territory .... and while the focus will be on how will the U.S. respond to such a declaration, the real focus should be on how will China's neighbors respond .... which I suspect will be overwhelmingly negative and will result in the formation of alliances and strategies to block China's expansionist policies. I would also add a major arms race will explode as a result of these moves by China.