Militant Islamist fighters on a tank take part in a military parade along the streets of northern Raqqa province, June 30, 2014. (photo by REUTERS/Stringer)
Mohammad-Mahmoud Ould Mohamedou, Al-Monitor: The Islamic State's first year
Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, the spokesman of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), released a statement on June 29, 2014, in which the organization announced that it was becoming "the Islamic State" (IS) and re-establishing the Muslim caliphate under the leadership of "Caliph Ibrahim," Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. A few days later, on July 4, Baghdadi delivered a victory sermon from the mosque in Mosul, a city he and his storm troopers had earlier wrestled from Iraqi soldiers on June 10. Three main lessons can be drawn since these events a year ago: IS had a very good first year; there is an absence of any cogent regional or international strategy to oppose the group; and there are long-term consequences of the transformations taking place in the Levant at the hands of IS.
WNU Editor: It is true what this commentator is noting .... a year ago the prospect of the Islamic State flag flying in Damascus was ridiculed. Today .... no one is ridiculing that possibility.
For all intents and purposes Damascus has fallen to the Islamists,it's just waiting for the ceremony and parade. You can include Baghdad. It only stays out of ISIS's hands because of the Iranian presence. The last relatively easy target for ISIS is Saudi Arabia.
ReplyDeleteIf I was ISIS high command I would be considering the following:
Near Strategy:
1) Saudi Arabia, The possession of Mecca and Medina would be of incalculable propaganda value. Could it be taken with an organized military campaign, yes. But would have a high probability of major foreign military intervention. Best bet continued internal subversion and infiltration.
2)ISIS is probably intently studying the prospects of direct attack on Iran. Is Iran truly overstretched and a paper tiger? Would a direct attack alienate too many of the Islam faith overseas. The answer to both of the above is yes and Iran could be driven back to somewhere north of Basra, but an attack on Iran proper shouldn't feasible for at least a year.
3) Egypt, this one must fascinate them. They have a sizable presence in country, a large segment of the population, military, political establishment highly favorable. The prizes: the Suez canal, the "intellectual" home of Islam, and the opening of the gateway to North Africa for linking up with Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, and the Sub-Sahara.
4) Keep Israel out of the fight as long as possible.
Far Strategy:
Keep Europe and the US off balance with a steady stream of small but sensational attacks. Push refugees into Europe and attack it's economy and culture.
My prediction: ISIS is at one of those "moments" where decisions such as these will now make or break them as a force. There seems to be no will in the West to go get them, so if they fail it will have to come their own mistakes. The time of where they could have been defeated with a punch in the mouth by a professional military is now gone.
I could not have said it any better James.
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