A Look At The Future Of Land Warfare

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Michael O'Hanlon, Brookings: 'The Future of Land Warfare'

In my new book, "The Future of Land Warfare" (Brookings Institution Press, 2015), I attempt to debunk the new conventional wisdom (which began with the Obama administration but also permeates thinking beyond): Messy ground operations can be relegated to the dustbin of history. That is a paraphrase and dramatization, to be sure—but only a modest one, since the administration’s 2012 and 2014 defense plans both state that the U.S. Army will no longer size its main combat forces with large-scale counterinsurgency and stabilization missions in mind.

This is, I believe, a major conceptual mistake, even if not yet one that has decimated the Army. But it will cause increasing harm with time if we buy into the idea. The active-duty Army is already below its Clinton-era size and only slightly more than half its Reagan-era size. Reductions to the Army Reserve and Army National Guard have been almost as steep. None need grow at this juncture, but the cuts should stop.

WNU Editor: What I find interesting about this report are "possible future scenarios". The Korean war scenario with Chinese involvement predicts the involvement of 400,000 U.S. soldiers .... hmmmm .... I do not think so. A war with China will involve the entire U.S. military .... and if it escalates .... conscription and the probable use of nuclear weapons.