BBC
NOW: ISIS mobilizing for large Deir Ezzor battle
The extremist group is reportedly preparing an imminent offensive on regime-controlled areas in the urban center of the city.
BEIRUT – ISIS has been mobilizing equipment and fighters on a large scale for an upcoming operation to seize the last-two large regime controlled areas in the urban center of Deir Ezzor, according to All4Syria.
The anti-regime outlet reported Wednesday that since the beginning of the week ISIS has been undertaking preparations to attack the Jawra and Qusour neighborhoods of the city located on the western banks of the Euphrates.
The report added that ISIS has dubbed the upcoming operation the “Battle of Arafah” in reference to the Muslim Holy Day that marks the second day of the Hajj pilgrimage to Mecca, which in 2015 falls on September 23.
WNU Editor: The Syrian forces are surrounded and cut off. It will only be a question of time before they are defeated.
The fightings in Deir Ezzor first started just about four years ago, and there were times when the situation was worst than as it is now. Yes the city is encicled, but SAA keep holding the airbase close south from the city. IS made countless number of attacks on the airbase in the last year, yet all with no result. The city center area was calm in the last year, without any major operations. SAA is not in a bad position around the city, they advanced along the river in the last year and made a more stable area to defend, they have the possibility to keep the lines until the siege on them being lifted. I think IS may have the local resources to capture the city, but I expect them to fail in such an offensive.
ReplyDeleteIf I were the Syrians, Russians, and Iran, I would put the relief of Aleppo at the top of my to do list. Deir Ezzor is probably more important in a nuts and bolts sense, but the retrieval of Aleppo would serve many purposes for the new face of the Syrian conflict.
ReplyDelete@Laszlo Yes, but this time the regime no longer has a land resupply route since the fall of Palmyra.
ReplyDeleteCaecus
ReplyDeleteThe land supply route was a "complicated" thing for SAA in the last year. The city itself was encircled around spring of 2014, but the route itself was very dangerous even before that time. During the last year they did not got any major reinforcement, but there are live air-bridge, because the assigned SAA general Issam Zahreddine showed up at Hasakie after IS captured part of it early this summer, and also before/after in Deir Ezzor. Fall of Tadmur was just the last, but loud drop of water in the bottle.
James
Aleppo is a very stable point in this war, there is no need for fear over it from the SAA's viewpoint. The frontlines are static, the rebels inside the city are relatively weak and lack of resources. Other rebel groups, outside of the city towad West has more resources, and better trained, they have potential, just like they had in the fightings West and South from the city during the last 2 years ( for example when the whole South side of SAA units were cut off from land supply lines for months).
But in general, rebel forces do not represent danger for SAA, however IS do. Not in the way of defeating the deployed SAA forces, but the northern section of units (area captured during Operation Rainbow, just the aftermath of Brigade Base 80's liberation) could be easily cut off between Base 80 and the industrial park North East from the city. This could lead to another situation, that from the east IS could infiltrate into the city to fight against/side by the rebels. Anyway this unlikely to happen, it's just not fit for the current military situation of IS in the area. For example SAA advance toward Kueres Airbase is still on going, they advancing slowly but steadily so far.
Deir Ezzor could have more reason than Aleppo has, like:
- fighting IS (and not the "mnoderated rebels",
- broke the more than one year long siege of a big city and by that keep the moral up to make an example for SAA solders, that they won't be let down by their leaders,
- the area of operaion require less and fewer (type) assets and preparation because we talking about a desert (this fit better for Russian aircrafts, confrontation with colalitional forces could happen, but neither side want WW3)
- the city itself has a huge strategical importance in the fight against IS, because it's in the midle of IS controlled areas (in a future case it's perfectly fit to cut IS captured areas into two half, Syria and Iraq ).
At the end of the day it's all come down to where SAA could advance, and thats now Tadmur, and possibly it's will be (along with Latakia).
P.S. Sorry that I so offen switch between this and the "Laszlo Miko" account, it's just a device related thing.
Just a quick update, a Zvezda TV report from Syria: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-FPvAazxtc
ReplyDeleteThank you as always for your input mlacix
ReplyDeletemlacix, Laszlo,
ReplyDeleteYes, that is what I meant about Deir Ezzor being more important than Aleppo in a purely military sense (nut and bolts), but here's what I mean about Aleppo; Russia has just pulled a very public international move and Putin is going to New York. If they could boast the taking of a large Syrian city from ISIS (it doesn't really have to be them just rebels, just let the propaganda people do the rest) in a short amount of time, it would be a huge feather in Putin's cap, play well back in Russia and make the New York trip more of a victory parade than just a meeting. For the very reasons you state Aleppo would fit the bill perfectly for a quick Russian/SAA liberation emphasis of course on the Russian.
To "capture" Aleppo rather than taking Deir Ezzor would take way more resources and time than it could for example in a year from now. I put the word capture in quotes, because neither Aleppo nor Deir Ezzor is in the hand of anyone.
ReplyDeleteFrontlines in Aleppo is form a Jin-Jang shape thing. Sides tried to encircle each other so many times that they ended up in half way, but in general SAA is in a bit better position. Rebels hold a ~5km wide and about ~10km long curved area, just about 50% (this include a YPG hold distric, about 10% of size) of the city. The area to capture is huge, high building, fully urbanised environment, lot of civilians still inside the rebel held parts of the city, sides entrenched themself and a advancing here would he very hard. In such a scenario that SAA would attack the city inside, even with Russian support I would guess a 1-1500 SAA solder, 5000+ civilian death at the minimum, and it's still would take 4-6 months. This is really like in Damascus, Jobar, Al-Qabun, Daraya, Yarmuk or Zamalka district, it's just not possible to take them with force only, without high casualties.
On the other hand we have Deir Ezzor, a smaller city, yet still big. Mainly lay on the south side of the river. On the river there are several smaller island, bridges (only one cross/ed the river fully) supposed to make the connections, but they were blown up in early fightings. Currently the center river side of the city, a size of about 3 square km, aproximetly 30% held by IS, while SAA holding not just the rest, but also the Airbase, and advanced along the river both to South East and North West, to clear an almost 20km long area. The urban area similar to Aleppo, high buildings, but smaller area of operation, also no civilians. As I guess the capture of the city, to get rid of the deployed IS forces (without mass reinforcement) would take 2-4 weeks, would cost about 3-500 SAA soldier's life, and no civilian casualties. But such an attack require a guarantee for the local SAA forces that they won't be overrun by IS from other side while they focusing on their own advance at the city center. Such a guarantee could be the Russian/Any heavy air support, or the arrive of land based reinforcements.
Putin would be happy to show off, archive something (or anything) in a short time, but that deffinetly not going to be Aleppo or Deir Ezzor. As I mentioned earlier the only possible target is Tadmur, and in some way to breaking the siege at Kuweres Air base East from Aleppo (yet I did not see Russian effort to do anything related that AB, but it's also fight against IS). Zabadani will fall within a few week, but Russia has nothing to do with that. At the end lifes supposed to matter more.
mlacix,
ReplyDeleteWell that makes more sense than what I was thinking. I'd still watch for Russian activity around Aleppo (I'm not completely convinced), especially the airbase at Kuweres. "At the end lifes supposed to matter more." True, but a lot of the characters involved there don't believe that.