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Institute For The Study Of War: The Syrian war's trajectory could radically shift soon
The trajectory of the Syrian Civil War may fundamentally shift within the 90 day timeframe. Russia escalated its military assistance on behalf of the Syrian regime in early September 2015, deploying armored vehicles and hundreds of personnel to the Syrian Coast in preparation for the establishment of at least one forward air operations base.
Rebel factions led by Syrian al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al- Nusra (JN) continue to pressure the regime’s stronghold along the Alawite Coast following a several-month campaign to expel regime forces from Idlib Province. Turkey and the U.S.-led anti-ISIS coalition intend to establish an “ISIS-free” zone in northern Syria along the Turkish border with the assistance of moderate rebel forces.
Update: Putin's Syria play is a game-changer — which means the West needs to rethink everything -- ISW
WNU Editor: The key question that still needs to be answered is .... how big of a military commitment is Russia willing to take in Syria. If it is a huge commitment involving hundreds of attack jets/helicopters and coupled with tens of thousands of soldiers .... the war will shift dramatically. If it is a small presence .... air support and special ops in the same manner that the U.S. has committed itself to Afghanistan and to a lesser extent in Iraq .... it will still be a shift, but not as drastic as a full fledge commitment. Either-way .... my gut is telling me that the war is about to shift into a more intense tempo in the coming months .... and for the U.S. and its allies in the region .... they are now being forced to alter their strategies and objectives.
"WNU Editor: The key question that still needs to be answered is .... how big of a military commitment is Russia willing to take in Syria."
ReplyDeleteThat can only be answered by knowing what is Russia's overall objective in doing this. So far all that can be seen on the ground is that they are securing an entry/exit point with a certain capacity of traffic. It is not here that their overall intentions can be divined. Watch the Syrian seaports, activity there is the key.