Micahe Kofman, War On The Rocks: How Russia's Gambit In Syria Changes The Game
By upping the ante, Putin hopes to deter the West from encroaching too far on Russian interests in Syria. But Russia is not eager to fight alongside Assad on the ground. Expect its direct role in the conflict to remain limited.
A large uptick in the influx of Russian weapons and equipment into Syria in recent weeks, along with 200 additional naval infantry, has fueled speculation that Moscow is preparing for an expanded role in the conflict. President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, coyly suggested on September 18th that Russia would indeed consider sending more troops if Damascus requests them, but “it is difficult to speak hypothetically.” With Vladimir Putin in New York this month to speak at the UN General Assembly, some may expect just another rant, but more likely, he is not here to simply score political points. The timing is uncanny, and by all appearances Moscow plans to force Washington into a change of course on Syria. This was seemingly unthinkable a few months ago, but Russia has a way lately of turning the unthinkable into the possible.
WNU Editor: This is the best analysis that I have read so far on what is the end game for Russia in Syria.
WNU,
ReplyDeleteAs you say this is a pretty good analysis. A few quibbles:
"Some have argued there is a grander scheme afoot, to restore Russian power in the Middle East. These are fantastical fears of hawks in the U.S. foreign policy community, where losing even a little means losing everything. Geopolitical analysis of Russian actions in the Middle East needs to let go of the Cold War lens. Russia is not the Soviet Union, and it has no grand global or ideological ambitions, particularly in a volatile and hazardous region like the Middle East."
Mr. Kofman is correct in that it's not the old Soviet Union, but he himself, I think is way too certain in this statement of it's limitations.
No mention of Turkey which I am beginning to believe is of prime importance to Russia. I've already voiced some of my thoughts elsewhere, but wish to add that this makes it easier for Putin to pressure Turkey into reduced support for Sunni Islamicists in Chechnya. If this can be done Sunnis in Chechnya will be completely cut off from the south landwise.