Ukraine's Future Does Not Look Bright

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko (R) shakes hands with U.S. Vice President Joe Biden after delivering a statement on the results of their talks in Kiev, in this December 7, 2015 file photo. REUTERS/Sergei Supinski/Pool/Files

Reuters: Political feuding imperils Ukraine's future, Obama's record

On his most recent visit to Kiev, U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden said he spends more time speaking to Ukrainian officials than to his own wife.

He may not be exaggerating: senior U.S. officials, including Biden, are deeply embroiled in trying to persuade Ukraine’s leadership to hold the line and implement the reforms they have promised to carry out.

But despite these efforts, divisions inside the ruling coalition are growing and many of the reforms are stalled. If the leaders fail, it will be a deep embarrassment to Washington, the EU, and the IMF which sacrificed relations with Russia to support these people.

"I think we may have logged close to 1,000 hours on the telephone," Biden told reporters during his visit this month, referring to his calls with Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko, before adding the quip that it was more time than he spends talking to Mrs Biden.

WNU Editor: During the holidays I have been spending some time talking to my friends and family in Ukraine. The conversations always start off like this .... everything is fine .... and after a few minutes of talking about how "fine" everything is, they all start ripping into the Ukraine government and President Poroshenko, the corruption, the imploded economy, and the war. Even people that I know who supported President Poroshenko in the past are now quiet .... they have definitely lost faith in his rule. And while the Russian media is constantly pointing out how unpopular Ukraine President Poroshenko is .... Ukrainian President Poroshenko's approval rating drops below ousted predecessor's (RT), the fact is that their poll results just mirror what western pollsters have been saying for months .... Polls: Ukrainian Public Dissatisfied With Current Conditions. Ukraine Government And Ukraine President Poroshenko Deeply Unpopular. The above Reuters' post is also very revealing on what has always been U.S. intentions on Ukraine since the beginning .... to reform the system into a Western model, and to steer Ukraine away from Russia. Unfortunately .... as regular readers of this blog know .... it was doomed from the start. Ukraine is not ready for such a radical change .... the culture, the economy, the politics .... it is all interconnected with Russia .... and vice versa. Breaking this bond would result in chaos .... which it has .... and as a result corruption is now "sky-high" and the control and dominance of the oligarchs have only been further cemented, with Poroshenko benefiting from it personally. The fact that U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's son has business interests in Ukraine also undermines whatever lectures on battling corruption the U.S. may make. My prediction for 2016 is not positive .... more of the same and a growing unease throughout the country. If things do not improve this summer .... expect a second Maidan revolution starting at the end of the year.

Update: Stratfor's analysis on Ukraine has just been released .... Ukraine: Caught Between East and West (Stratfor)