U.S. Defense Department map shows Coalition and Ground Forces in Syria and Iraq fighting Islamic State, or Daesh, fighters in the Anbar Corridor from Hadithah to Ramadi. (Courtesy: United States Central Command)
VOA: Islamic State Caliphate Crunched by US-Backed Forces
The borders of the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria are steadily eroding, but it will likely be months before U.S. and coalition-backed forces are ready to take on the terror group’s strongholds in Mosul or Raqqa.
New estimates from U.S.-led Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) show Islamic State (IS) fighters have lost 40 percent of the territory they once held in Iraq and five percent of the territory they once held in Syria.
“We’ve seen small dust-ups in both the Euphrates and Tigris River valleys but no significant tactical action,” OIR spokesman Col. Steve Warren told Pentagon reporters from Baghdad regarding IS activity in Iraq.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: Progress is being made .... albeit very slowly.
ISIS "Crunched by US-Backed Forces" -- and the US talks about Russian propaganda? It was Shi'ite militias, backed by Iran, not the US and its non-existent "coalition." Ashton Carter: Gulf Arabs Need to Get in the Fight.
ReplyDeleteI'm just looking for James and his faith.
ReplyDeleteLászló Mikó
ReplyDeleteWhat? Not questioning you.
I am just not up to speed ion all the reading.
Aizino Smith:
ReplyDeleteIt's just a reference back to one of the coversation which I had with James, earlier this month, about the status of Ramadi and the whole Iraqian armed forces. I'm just looking for him, to know what he think about the situation now.
Laszlo. I forgot to give you credit for the Syrian video that you gave me 2 days ago. Sorry. That is not like me. My excuse is that I am a bit overwhelmed with visitors/friends from overseas right now .... and that I am getting too old.
ReplyDeleteWNUE:
ReplyDeleteDon't worry about that, it's not that important to me.
Thank you Miko. But it is important to me. I always appreciate feedback from people like you, and I am of the firm belief that people should always be credited for what they contribute.
ReplyDeleteHey Laszlo,
ReplyDeleteSorry about taking so long. I'm unfortunately really busy so I can't really give the attention to this that it deserves. I do want to discuss it further in the near future, but until then. No I haven't changed my opinion radically. Ramadi; the way the the offensive was heavily built up and promoted in the media, then with victory declared as soon as possible and the entire story almost completely disappearing (with the exception of rumored fighting)tells me it was in the end a pr move.
From what I can gather from my limited information there has been no work up for follow on operations what so ever. I'm going to have to think a little more about it. Overall it seems like there is a pause (especially among the major players) with almost everyone looking toward Geneva.
Laszlo,
ReplyDeleteI also haven't appreciatively changed my opinion on the abilities of Hezbollah, virtually all Shia militia, or the IRG. That said it doesn't mean they can't get better. The Iranians themselves seemed to have made at least two major miscalculations:
1) The effectiveness of the Shia militias and Hezbollah.
2) The effectiveness of US air support for the above grouping in a campaign against ISIS and/or the Syrian rebel grouping.
Except for specially trained small units (for the Ramadi operation), I see no real improvement in the overall Iraqi military. If they were really all that better and making real headway against ISIS we'd be hearing about it 24/7.
The Russians and the Syrian regulars seem to making some progress, but it is of a scope of limited objectives.
Overall as I said before there seems to be a pause for the whatever you want to call them talks. The Russians have pushed the US into a strategic no mans land of operation somewhere in Northern Iraq, between them and the Kurds. The US has no real allies only Ad Hoc arrangements in which there is no overarching goal except to deal with the moment.
Europe has turned inward with it's own pressing problems and lack of effective military. Turkey is isolated by it's stupidity. I also say that Turkey's armed forces though touted by many as first rate have not really had a test on which to gauge them.
The wild card to all of this is Israel.
What to expect:
If there is to be a European or US or some combination there of military intervention of scale it'll be in Libya.
More ISIS activity across North Africa and especially Egypt. Also activity in Iraq mostly to pin forces and political events and preparations for any allied movement to Mosul.
If I was in command I would strike at Der ez Sour.
Well I've ran my mouth enough, gotta go, let me know what you think and know.
James .... I concur. Libya is becoming the focus point for the West. Iraq/Syria .... other players are now involved, and the U.S./West are just spectators.
ReplyDeleteJames:
ReplyDeleteYes, it's true that Iraqian militias and the army itself did not become anyway better in the last few weeks, but at least they captured Ramadi, and keep holding it so far. The key is what they did was not expected, and yet tehy still achived something. They keep saying Mosul will be the next target, I doubt that, but who knows maybe they are really that confident, which will not protect against bullets.
Der ez Sour/Zor was targeted by IS just two weeks ago (and constantly during the last 2 years), and little to none progress were made. It's true that the city is encircled (basically since 2013), but SAA forces strong there, with a strong commander on the field, and they will hold the frontlines for a year or more. SAA playing chess well, they keep many options quick to access, they can counter any enemy step with another which would hurt more, and if sht go down on Der-ez-Zor, SAA advance will reach the city within 2 weeks, I have no doubt on that. But currently it's not a priority to breake the encirclement (I know this sound stupid, but thats how it is).
SAA made very important gains in North Latakia (Al-Furlaq forest and Turkmen Mount.), SW Aleppo, East Aleppo (Kweres AB.) and even in Daraa (Miskin). They keep getting closer to reach the border with Turkey, and I see only one thing that could stop them in this, which about there were an article last week or so, that Al-Nusra called rebels to unite under their flag. Rebels said no, but when the Idlib front break rebels will have two choice, surrend or unite with Nusrah. And that step would end any possibility of peace talks, since they are basically Al-Queda. It's not like I belive in Geneva, I think it's a nice way of spending money and time, and I expect zero to none result from it.
I agree that West focus more on Lybia, they have more possibilities there, but I don't think there will be any intervention plan any soon. I expect Obama to leave office with having not involved in another wars. In Europe, the elections in many country will take away more attention and war is rarely a good advertisement for any parties. Lybia is not like Mali or Somalia, and consecvences (both military on the field, and civilian back home) of a French, Italian or UK ground intervention would slap in the back easily. The no-fly zone back in 2011/12 just made sure to f up the situation for years, and I see it now a no-go zone, but maybe thats just me being pessimist. At the end Líbia will get more attention than Jemen, no matter how intense the war is there. Egypt is unknown for me, Shina was silence in the last weeks.
Oh and I forgot to include two thing to my previous post.
ReplyDeleteFirst a video which you may seen already, it's about SAA fighting IS in Der-er-Zor, just two weeks ago. The rarely seen infantry close combat screen are coming after 9:00. I WARN those who not used to this kind of content, that blood and bodies may could be on the screen before 9:00. Here is the video: https://youtu.be/iCuGrmNpZ0Q
Second is an image which I seen this week, and supposed to be an Al-Nusrah unit in Hama area, driving a HMMWV. Well, any idea how they get it? Some say the captured it in Aleppo, from SAA or IS. Here is the pic: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CZ6AF9LWQAAl8S1.jpg:large
Laszlo,
ReplyDelete"But currently it's not a priority to breake the encirclement (I know this sound stupid, but thats how it is)."
Maybe SAA is trying to fix and bleed them there, or they have just enough to hold and that's all, I don't know. But that place is the key to destroying ISIS in Iraq/Syria.
The video:
They are getting better from what I've seen before. Coordination and morale look much much better. They're obviously now willing to go and dig the bad boys out of their holes at close quarters instead of shoot, scoot, and hope.
I had to laugh at the 2:00 mark, when the squad size group decided to get to the low rise over looking a village and sent one guy after another across the open ground. Being the first guy sucks, but being the no.2 and 3 guys really sucks.
Couple of things I noticed;
1) The mix and match uniforms. Either the SAA has a lot of locals in their ranks or new replacements/recruits, or they are replacing worn out stuff with what they can scrounge.
2) The SAA in the video definitely act like they are under observation and fire, but seem to have no fear of indirect fire from ISIS.
3) You see traces of tracked vehicles in the dirt (re: 2:00 minute mark left of the guys huddling), but you never see groupings just singles here and there.
4) Egypt would be a great prize for ISIS (they came close with the Brotherhood in power). They have activity there, especially in the Sinai.
Thanks for the video and info, later.
Laszlo,
ReplyDeleteThe Iraqi army. Their fundamental problem is not courage or intelligence, but more along the lines of something to fight for. There is no Iraqi "national indentity" anymore , if there ever was one. The mood is everyone for himself or his peculiar brand of faith. That won't work well, at least not in our idea of armed forces organization and fighting doctrine.
James:
ReplyDeleteMaking a corirdor toward Der-ez-Zor, just would require lots of forces, which SAA currently not having in reserve, that's was the main reason that led to the fall of Tadmur and Idlib. Having another large area to cover is just not worth it, while they are in defens they can choose where to make unbalance in the force ratios. Cutting the lenght of the frontlines and elmiminating pockets are still high priority for SAA, an as soon as Latakia been fixed, just the Homs and Damascus pockets will remain. I do not think SAA has a plan of tie IS to Der-ez-Zor, because this decision depend on IS at first, but if they are really dumb (and currently it's looks like that), they will do so. I do not see the city itself to be more important in any way, than further advances toward Damascus, Daraa or Homs, just for examples.
The unit's on the videos have higher morale, because their leader (the old man with the beard) is Major General Issam Zahreddine, the leader of the Republican Guards, and he is well known for always being on the frontline with the soldiers. I think the uniforms were both because of lack of proper clothing, and the "cold" weather. About the vehicles, as far as I seen, SAA rarely uses armored vehicels in mass (some operation in Damascus were made with 4 T72 and 6 BMP2, but I not seen more than that), and more likely they deploy the vehicles on the actual critical areas, and with mostly support use. SAA lost way too much vehicles during this war, msot of the losses was because of bad decisions/use, and even the older vehicles are now used up. At Der-ez-Zor, the last ground supply they got was a mechanised unit (back in 13 or early 14 as far as I remember), which brought them some APCs, but all of their equipment are worn out now. This use of the equipment is made by the need, because they simply do not have enough. However I think this war showed well the possibilities which lie in older military equipment if it's come to war.
"It's not like I believe in Geneva, I think it's a nice way of spending money and time, " - LazLo
ReplyDeleteBut think of all the opportunities to eat out, see the sights, get pampered in 1st class etc.
This is de rigueur for ruling class
Laszlo,
ReplyDeleteWell again, we'll see. If people are counting the Russians to comprehensively defeat ISIS I think they are in for a disappointment. The Russians seem to have a plan of limited scope. Standup the Syrian regime and solidify the western end of the Syrio/Iranian corridor.