Eric Bradner, CNN: 5 takeaways from the Iowa caucuses
Des Moines, Iowa (CNN)Ted Cruz made Iowa a boom-or-bust state -- and with the pressure on, he performed, overcoming Donald Trump's criticism of his Canadian birth and his overall demeanor and pulling out a victory.
Monday night's Iowa caucuses also produced a clear leader among establishment-type Republicans, with Marco Rubio surging into the GOP's top tier. But the Democratic race is clear as mud, with results still trickling in and Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders locked in a near tie.
Here are five takeaways from the Iowa caucuses:
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WNU Editor: I mentioned in December that I only saw 3 viable Republican candidates by March .... Ted Cruz/Donald Trump/Marco Rubio .... I am still sticking with that prediction. As to the eventual Republican Presidential nominee .... Donald Trump is not a sure thing, but he is well positioned to win in New Hampshire next week, followed by South Carolina. The key question is ... can he carried the momentum after that .... I do not know the answer to that, but we shall see. As for the Democrat Party .... conventional wisdom was that Hillary Clinton was in trouble in Iowa, and that she will lose in New Hampshire. I was surprised that she tied in Iowa .... but she will lose in new Hampshire. But after New Hampshire, her support within the Democrat establishment and having a large organization in the other primaries to get out the vote will be more than enough for her to win the nomination.
WNU Editor,
ReplyDelete6 coin tosses, to get a tie, in a gerrymandered State for Hillary, which means Bernie got over 65% of the votes.
The "Yes We Can't" movement is gathering steam.
Don't bet on Hillary.
About half of the Bernie supporters I talk to, won't vote for Hillary if she wins the nomination.
Any candidate with lower than 5% of the vote needs to end their election bid now and stop hanging around just to soak up votes from the electable candidates. I'm talking to Rand Paul, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, and Jim Gilmore.
ReplyDeleteThankfully Huckabee has now ended his campaign, and O'Malley.
Jay,
ReplyDeleteI heard it was 7 coin tosses with a probability of 1.5%.
That is thew tail of the bell curve. So the null hypothesis of the coin tosses being fair is rejected.
Iowa isn't a real Caucus anyway, the districts are all gerrymandered, it's held in living rooms, church basements and Grange Halls while Superdelegates and Cantidate Rep's get to "harangue" the voter, even while they are in the booth.
DeleteNew Hampshire is the first "real" Caucus.