The Battle For Mosul Is Not Going To End When ISIS Has been Driven Out

A Kurdish fighter keeps guard while overlooking positions of Islamic State militants near Mosul in northern Iraq August 19, 2014. Youssef Boudlal/Reuters

Daniel Davis, National Interest: Exclusive: The Coming Battle for Mosul Will Be Tougher Than You Think

On April 17, U.S. secretary of defense Ash Carter visited Baghdad to confer with Iraqi leaders to discuss ways the United States might aid in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS). According to an unnamed senior defense official traveling with reporters on the Secretary’s visit, “everyone knows the fight of Iraq is the fight for Mosul,” he said, and that victory there will result in “the end game in Iraq.” Despite this nameless official’s assurances, however, tactical victory in Mosul is far from certain. More importantly, even if the city is eventually won, it will almost certainly not be the “end game” but merely slog into the next nasty phase.

In this classically irregular conflict, the Pentagon’s thinking is inexplicably linear and simplistic: take the enemy’s capital and game over. That may have been the case in World War II when Berlin was taken, but rarely does the loss of a single city – even one with significant symbolic value – result in the defeat of a country or movement (think of Napoleon’s successful capture of Moscow in 1812 but eventual loss in the war).

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Update: Who Will Rule Mosul? (Dan De Luce and Henry Johnson, Foreign Policy)

WNU Editor: The U.S. may extend aircraft carrier deployments as the battle for Mosul and beyond rages .... Navy extends USS Truman's deployment by 30 days (Virginia Pilot), but in the end this war will continue and probably for a long time