Bob Butterworth, Breaking Defense: Preparing for The Next War in Korea
Preparing for war can sometimes help prevent one, and those preparations are probably helpful if one does start. Perhaps it’s time to show North Korea what its forces would be in for, and to show our allies in the South that we are with them, seriously.
The best course may be through field exercises conducted jointly by US and South Korean conventional forces, demonstrating operational capabilities to be used in the face of nuclear strikes.
Often a second Korean War is imagined to end with US nuclear weapons destroying the North. True, this year United States has twice flown bombers over South Korea, perhaps to make sure that Kim remembers we have them. But it seems improbable that the US would use nuclear weapons in a war against the North, even if Kim Jong Un started the war by using atomic bombs.
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WNU Editor: If North Korea uses nuclear weapons .... I fail to see how the U.S. will not respond in kind. It would set up a horrible precedent (if nothing is done), and the pressure from our allies in Asia (and elsewhere), and among the U.S. military (and probably the U.S. public) to retaliate using nukes (and quickly) will be overwhelming.
If North Korea uses nukes against South Korea, they may not use them against the US as this is where the conflict is and they may wish for it to remain there. If this is the case, the moment the US uses nukes against the North either NK. its allies, or both are going to respond by using nukes against the US mainland. As such, it would be best for the US to refrain from using nukes in this case.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, NK may use nukes against SK and the US simultaneously in attempt to knock out both adversaries at the same time. In this scenario, this would probably be part of a broader coordinated operation involving NK and its allies that would likely be part of a broader operation that would include an invasion of the US mainland. In this case, the US would quickly find itself to busy as it frantically tries to stay alive to worry much about any "pressure" to retaliate against NK. In other words, all energies would be devoted to defending the mainland or retaliating against the direct invaders with nukes.
The current SK/US "alliance" is untenable for the following reasons. 1.)The US is expected to defend SK at any cost should it be invaded. SK is not expected to do the same should America be invaded. This a one-sided an unequtiable situation. Most Americans understand this. 2.) SK is not going to lift a finger to help America should it be invaded. Most Americans understand this. 3.)Americans are not going to risk the survival of their nation for a country thousands of miles away who does not like them, will not help them, and generally does not respect them. US politicians understand this and will face extreme pressure to keep us out of such a conflict. I thin both US and SK leaders understand this.
The solution would be for SK to become nuclear armed. Actually I've understood this since 1995. I'm glad to see that leaders in SK and some in America are finally coming around to this. It's a bit slow but they are finally getting there. Such a move would relieve pressure on US personnel allowing them to redeploy to proper positions and it should help improve relations between the US and SK.