Voice of America: China Ponders ADIZ in Disputed Sea
TAIPEI — A Chinese state institution warned this week that Beijing is ready to set up an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over the contested South China Sea, giving it the authority to screen foreign aircraft. But analysts say any enforcement would anger other countries without deterring traffic.
That measure would follow a series of steps to control the movement of foreign ships in the same sea, underlining China's intent to hold its vast maritime claims after a world court tribunal ruled in July that it lacked a legal argument.
China calls 95 percent of the sea its own and its militarization of tiny islets since 2010 has angered officials from Jakarta to Washington. Beijing reportedly toyed with the idea of an ADIZ in July after the court verdict.
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WNU Editor: If China declares such a zone it would now only exacerbate tensions in the region .... but probably be ignored by everyone.
They should ponder playing nice, with a new sheriff in town.
ReplyDeleteDeclaring an ADIZ is one thing, enforcing it is another.
ReplyDeleteThis is however, year 7 of China "pondering" an ADIZ with out declaring one.
USN has already stretched/tested the Chinese naval defense pickets. With only three DDG's. I doubt the Chinese would declare an ADIZ for the whole South China Sea and run the risk of having their own "Syrian Red Line" backfire.
ReplyDeleteWe shall see.
The Chinese are now militarily where they weren't before. Their strategy of the last 8 yrs has paid those dividends, but there is likely a very different geo-political landscape about to dawn on the world. Though it is not in their case necessary give a up a heretofore successful strategy, caution is warranted.
ReplyDeleteThe Chinese put almost as much emphasis on form (names, claims, etc) as they do actual usage. They are famous for this. It is not certain to them that Trump will be President for 8 years, 4 years, or even this January, so they stake their claim and watch.
Does anyone think the US has intentions to forcibly evict them from where they have already planted their flag? A demonstration of "right of passage" is in essence a hollow act when the chinese military presence is the implicit reality of "right of closure".
There are many 'pressure points' around the world. With many countries able to exhibit or tacitly pronounce their,'rights to closure'. However, to truly open or close an access point in the sea lanes will take a far more forward leaning military from China,, To suggest that China can really project their hopes and intentions on East Asia without serious and debilitating blowback at this point, flies in the face of the true military and economic playing field being impressed on China. This is a time for China to decide to play nice with the international sensibilities being expressed in the region and in the UN.
ReplyDeleteAnon,
ReplyDelete" To suggest that China can really project their hopes and intentions on East Asia without serious and debilitating blowback at this point, flies in the face of the true military and economic playing field being impressed on China."
You're right. I think though the Chinese are playing a very long game and put a lot of faith in the "being there" principle. Whether that can be effectively countered by the US short of physical eviction from disputed islands I don't know. Neither do I know if the US even has the will for a serious challenge. The occasional sailing of a few warship through the area does keep our claim of passage alive, but the Chinese know we'll have to leave and they don't.