RT: Agreement reached on ceasefire in Syria & readiness to start peace talks - Putin
Russian President Vladimir Putin has confirmed agreement has been reached on a ceasefire in Syria and the start of peace talks.
“This agreement we’ve reached is very fragile, as we all understand. They require special attention and patience, professional attitude, and constant contact with our partners,” Putin said at a meeting with Russian foreign and defense ministers.
The agreement, which was previously announced by Turkey, is detailed in three documents, Putin said.
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More News On Putin Announcing A Syrian Ceasefire To Begin Across Syria Starting At Midnight
Putin declares Syria ceasefire: Live -- BBC
Putin says ceasefire achieved in Syria -- TASS
Syrian government, rebels sign cease-fire deal, says Russia -- AP
Russia announces ceasefire in Syria from midnight -- Reuters
Syria regime, rebels agree nationwide ceasefire -- AFP
Syria army, opposition confirm nationwide truce -- AFP
Syria conflict: Ceasefire agreed, backed by Russia and Turkey -- BBC
Syrian Government Announces Truce Backed by Russia and Turkey -- NYT
Cease-fire to begin across Syria starting at midnight, Syrian army says -- Washington Post
Syria, rebel groups sign cease-fire, Russian president says -- UPI
Syrian government and rebels have signed ceasefire deal, says Putin -- The Guardian
Could this be the end? Putin announces a ceasefire in Syria from midnight and a 'reduction' of Russian forces -- Daily Mail/AFP
Vladimir Putin Says Syria Cease-Fire Deal Reached, Hostilities to End Friday -- ABC News
Nationwide Syria Cease-fire Announced -- VOA
Putin: Russia, Turkey guarantee ceasefire in Syria -- Al Jazeera
Turkey and Russia 'agree' on nationwide Syria ceasefire -- Al Jazeera
Russia, Turkey Broker Syria Truce in Step Toward Peace Deal -- Bloomberg
Syrian Government, rebels agree to nationwide ceasefire -- ABC News Online
Syrian government, opposition agree to ceasefire -- DW
Putin and Erdogan discuss ceasefire in Syria -- TASS
Assad believes agreements on Syria lay grounds for stabilization 'for first time ever' -- TASS
Proposed Syria peace deal could slash Assad's power, report claims -- FOX News
Ceasefire in Syria comes into force at midnight December 30 -- TASS
Russia to cut military presence in Syria -- TASS
Fate of Syria ceasefire plan remains unclear -- Al Jazeera
What We Know About the Syrian Ceasefire Announced by Putin -- The Atlantic
Syria ceasefire deal: What we know so far -- RT
There are several unusual features to this announcement:
ReplyDelete1. Iran does not seem to have joined it. This might reflect how the goals Iran has in Syria differ from Turkey's and Russia's. I think the three allies's goals can be summarized as follows:
a. Turkey wants only to control a strip of Syria along its frontier, as a way to weaken the Kurds. Turkey seems to be resigned to accepting Assad's continuation as president, which is a major concession by Turkey. Whether Syria's war continues or not is not critical to Turkey's goals. Turkey also supports continued military operations against ISIS, which has staged terrorist attacks in Turkey. Turkey's current goals are modest and attainable.
b. Russia wants to retain its bases in Syria. For that, Russia need at least a rump state effectively controlled by Russia through its Alawite clients to provide a buffer around its bases. Whether Assad stays or goes is not critical to Russia's goals. Whether Syria's war continues or not is also not critical to Russia's goals. Russia also wants to reduce its military effort, which it can do now following its Aleppo victory. Russia also supports continued operations against ISIS, in part to contain its own Moslem problem. Russia's current goals are also modest and attainable.
c. Iran's goals are broader. Iran wants to have sufficient control over a swath of Syrian territory to be its land bridge to Lebanon/Hezbollah. For that, Iran needs a friendly government in Damascus and battlefield success in a broader portion of Syria than do Turkey or Russia. Whether Assad stays or goes is not critical to Iran's goals. But whether the war continues in Syria, and who wins, is important to Iran in a way it is not to Russia and Turkey. Iran's goals are also partially religious (Shiite vs. Sunni) which gives it an interest in the result of the overall war. A Sunni victory would be a defeat for Iran in a way it would not be for Russia or Turkey. So note that Iran has not (so far) endorsed this cease fire.
2. At least some rebel groups have not joined it. It is not clear (to me at least) how many of the rebel factions have joined this cease fire. Nor is it clear that the rebels are willing to leave Assad in power.
3. The Sunni powers have not joined it. Note that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States have not endorsed this cease fire. It is not clear that the Sunni powers are willing to accept the demarcation of Syria into Turkish, Russian, and Iranian spheres of influence or to accept Assad's continuation as president. Such a result would leave the Sunni powers with nothing.
4. In the aftermath of the Aleppo victory I think all sides are exhausted and need time to rest and restock ammunition, weapons, etc. A pause is in everyone's interest. Moreover, it is winter now and the fighting season is over for a few months. All the players need time to reevaluate the situation after the Aleppo victory and recalculate their positions.
I think that most of the factions will observe the cease fire for a while, but only until they are ready to resume the war. This in not the end of the Syrian war, only a time out at most.