Nikkei Asian Review: US and South Korea agree to deploy THAAD this year
Mattis warns North Korea of 'overwhelming' response to nuclear use.
SEOUL/TOKYO -- Closing out his two-day visit to South Korea, the first overseas tour by a senior Trump administration official, U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis warned North Korea that any use of nuclear weapons would be met with an "overwhelming" response.
Heading into a meeting with his South Korean counterpart, Han Min-koo, on Friday, Mattis told reporters: "North Korea continues to launch missiles, develop its nuclear weapons program and engage in threatening rhetoric and behavior."
North Korea has hinted that it is ready to test an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the continental U.S., an early challenge for the Trump administration. "Any attack on the United States or our allies will be defeated, and any use of nuclear weapons would be met with a response that would be effective and overwhelming," Mattis said.
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Update: In South Korea, Mattis says US defense commitments in East Asia 'ironclad' (DW).
WNU Editor: Opposition to the deployment of THAAD to South Korea is producing the predictable responses from its neighbours ....
From Russia .... Russia warns South Korea of consequences if THAAD deployed (UPI)
From China .... China reiterates opposition to Thaad deployment in South Korea (IBTimes)
From North Korea .... North Korea accuses US, South Korea of plotting nuclear attack (CNN)
THAAD would be easily overcome by Russia and China. If North Korea is attacked, Russia and China are going to come to their aid. As such, even if North Korea cannot directly overcome THAAD it's allies can so de facto THAAD is useless against North Korea.
ReplyDeleteSince THAAD is useless against North Korea, why deploy this at all? If one was going to deploy it, they would want the support of Russia and China before deploying THAAD. It seems curious that the first place that the Sec of Defense would go is South Korea. It would have made more sense to visit places like Russia and China. Perhaps something good could have been accomplished had this been done.
THAAD is not going to be effective and it has negative utility in that it further strains relations between America and Russia and China. If South Korea thinks it needs a missile defense system, it should develop its own system indigenously. They should not need America to do this. Their fight with North Korea is not our fight and never should have been. Should the conflict go hot, America will be hit and hit hard. Tens of millions will die at a minimum.
Even if we chose to "sit out". we'd still get hit. At a minimum, South Korea needs to explain to Americans why they are worth us placing the survival of our country in even graver danger than it already is for them especially at a time when the US military would be hard pressed to defend America let alone offer positive utility to South Korea.
Why is General Mattis visiting South Korea? It would seem with the dire straits America's armed forces are in the best approach for the so called "warrior monk" would be to be to remain in the United States and work with whomever has the charge on American national defense and try to work on improving this.
While I had no optimism, I was hoping the US and South Korean leadership would be spending this time working on the timetable for when the US can FINALLY withdraw from South Korea. Instead we get THAAD!??! It seems the current leadership is every bit as misguided and confused as the previous leadership.
North korea would not be attacked, an attack would be a premptive strike not a response.
ReplyDeleteRussia cant afford it and china wants no part of it.
North korea would not be attacked, an attack would be a premptive strike not a response.
ReplyDeleteRussia cant afford it and china wants no part of it.
Fazman,
ReplyDeleteI hoper you're right. The United States DEFINITELY cannot afford it as it is in even worse financial shape than Russia is. Now assuming Russia really cannot afford this of which I'm skeptical but assuming they really can't and assuming China wants no part of it of which, as in the case of Russia, I'm skeptical then this would be all the more reason for American forces to leave South Korea for redeployment in America where they are needed to shore up our own defenses. Since, if your assumptions are correct, there is no danger to South Korea. After all Russia can't afford the fight and China doesn't want it. Then there's really no reason for us to be there and since our forces are badly needed elsewhere therefore now would seem the time for them to leave South Korea.
This would be all the more reason not to deploy THAAD. After all China doesn't want the fight and Russia can't afford it. As such, there would be no reason to do something that a potential adversary would deem as provocative where they might have the perception of being "backed against a wall" and feel they need to respond. In other words, there's no good reason to throw a match on a forest that isn't burning!! After all Russia can't afford it and China does not want it. Now if South Korea feels it needs a missile defense system to deter North Korea they can build one domestically. The United States is not needed for them to undertake and complete such a project.
As for a preemptive strike, this would be a terrible idea. North Korea would almost certainly get off a response. Much of South Korea would be ravished and 10s of millions of Americans would be dead. Even if North Korean missiles cannot reach the United States, North Korea almost certainly has operatives in the United States who will unleash a devastating wave of attacks on our country probably involving the use of "dirty bombs" and possibly suit case nuclear weapons. This would likely happen even if Russia and China did nothing in response which to me seems unlikely but assuming as you state Russia can't afford it and China doesn't want it then for the sake of this post I'm assuming you are correct.
By properly deploying our personnel we have a fighting defense of defending the American mainland should things go hot there and the proper deployment would likely be deemed less provocative to North Korea and would lessen the risk of an attack on us in the first place.
As I understand it, your country (Australia)has sensible immigration policies. to date, my country does not. As such, North Korean operatives are almost certainly already here and awaiting an order. If we aren't deemed a threat, that order is less likely to come. Since Russia can't afford this and China doesn't want it, whether you meant to or not you very forcefully made the case for why American forces need to be redeployed away from South Korea as soon as possible. Additionally, since Russia can't afford it and China doesn't want it, there is no need for the "timetables" I've suggested elsewhere for the redeployment. There's no reason we can't get started getting the ships and planes in place tonight to start removing our personnel tonight!!
This isn't our fight and never should have been. Unfortunately someone in the early 50s foolishly inserted us into this. Surely the South Koreans had to know an American commitment to this could not be indefinite. If they did not know this, well this may be one of those things that humans often know but don't want to know therefore they don't know. In which case, sympathy is not to be expected nor is it generally shown.
ReplyDeleteWith that said the American people are ready and willing to pressure our government to make any reasonable accomdations to South Korea and their people for any and all assistance they've offered us the past. Since Russia can't afford it and China doesn't want the conflict, there's no reason not to start the process of redeployment right now. It'd be cool if General Mattis and his South Korean counterpart began the process right now of the redeployment of American forces in a spirit of friendship and cooperation along with the armed forces of both countries doing so in a spirit of friendship and cooperation. The longer our people remain the more corrosive this is to relations between the countries and our forces are badly needed on the American mainland. Since China doesn't want it and Russia can't afford it, South Korea should be able to deter North Korea on it's own by now. As such, there's no reason not to begin the redeployment of our forces forthwith and since South Korea should be fully capable of internally developing a missile defense system should they deem it necessary THAAD is counterproductive.
Bposter..please just stop it
ReplyDeleteYour 3 page long argument against THAAD only shows who you work for
I'll explain it for the people who cannot see the obvious:
1. North Korea is the textbook Definition of a rogue state that is under the influence (I didn't say control) of China
2. North Korea's leader is arguably another textbook definition of what most of the world would see as a mad man, executing relatives etc etc
3. Now assuming that north Korea's leader is not only partially insane, but his madness can also be further be manipulated / utilised (drugged or otherwise) puts the US and other nations at a multi trillion dollar risk. ..
North Korea could in fact - if THAAD is not positioned, tested and operational within one year - launch a nuclear strike against the west coast of the US, ie california, ie Silicon Valley and Hollywood, two of the most important economic and cultural "weapons" of the US.
What could the US do in return? Nuke north Korea. .great. ..that has a value of 85bn... compare that to a multi trillion loss (aside from the lives lost)..
It would immediately and permanently (with that I mean for this century) change the World Order. By influencing one guy.
So. .again. .bposter... we know where you stand. Just change your nick.
Anon,
ReplyDeleteVery respectfully please try reading more carefully before responding. It is extremely helpful in making analysis. If you had read this and my other posts here more carefully, you would know that I definitely do not work for North Korea or any other American enemy.
1.) The rogue state has numerous allies including Russia and China arguably the most powerful nations on earth. They also count Iran as an ally. Given the world wide media messaging against the United States, there are those who would say "America" is the rogue state and not North Korea. I do NOT say this nor do I believe it but there are those who do and would gladly support North Korea if it meant opposing North Korea. As such, a "textbook" implies an open and shut case with almost universal agreement. Such is not the case here.
2.) Unfortunately leaders executing those opposed to them is nothing new in world history. Many would view him as a strong man whom one would want to ally with. I do NOT hold this view of course. Being anti-American gives him much mileage.
3.) THAAD may help defend South Korea against a limited North Korean missile attack. It will not help mitigate against the multi trillion dollar risk of a North Korean nuclear attack. For that we need to develop our own missile defense system. Besides the Russians and the Chinese have made it clear they oppose THAAD. Optimally we would want their assistance in helping to mitigate against the risk of a nuclear attack on the United States. As such, a THAAD system that has very limited utility is of little positive value and makes the type of assistance we need less likely to be obtained.
The current "world order" is going to change. The US dollar will lose its role as world reserve currency sooner rather than later. The only question is will this be a soft landing for America or a hard one. It would be prudent for America's leaders to work towards trying to ensure a soft landing. The deployment of THAAD will not alter this trajectory one bit in any way. Not deploying it may have positive utility in achieving the soft landing we should desire.
Now as fazman said the Chinese don't want the war and the Russians can't afford it, they'd be much more likely to help us if we don't provoke them in ways such as installing THAAD that as stated is no deterent to them anyway and only serves to inflame tensions. South Korea should be able to easily develop internally something like THAAD if they think they need a missile defense for their homeland against North Korea.
As for us, we need to deploy our forces to positions where they have a fighting chance to defend the America when it is attacked, develop a robust missile defense system for our homeland, and ensure our nuclear arsenal is large enough and in working order to the level that any adversary knows we will respond with extreme force should they attack us. This should be enough to discourage others from attack us when combined with less bling intervention where we insert ourselves into the affairs of others without thinking through the consequences.