Will Ukraine Change?

President Petro Poroshenko with soldiers in the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine, April 2017. Mikhail Palinchak/Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Reuters

Tim Judah, New York Review Of Books: Will Ukraine Ever Change?

Denis Voronenkov, a former member of the Russian parliament, was walking out of the Premier Palace Hotel in Kiev on March 23 when he was killed in a hail of bullets. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko immediately blamed the Russian state for his murder. Voronenkov, a former supporter of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine who was accused of corruption in Russia and then fled to Kiev last year, had been a controversial figure. After his defection, he was given Ukrainian citizenship, denounced Putin and his policies, and, perhaps crucially, testified against Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s former president, who had fled to Russia when he was driven from power during the Maidan revolution of 2014.

Russian officials denied involvement in Voronenkov’s death, but made clear they had little sympathy for a man they regarded as a traitor. He was just one more casualty of Ukraine’s revolution and its continuing war with Russia.

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WNU Editor: I have not posted anything on Ukraine for the past few weeks .... which is strange because I am almost always talking/Skyping with someone I know in that country almost every day. It is also true that nothing has changed. The corruption has actually gotten worse (unlike what the author of the above post is saying), the economy has stabilized (it cannot get any worse), the Army is becoming modernized (but most of these forces are not based on the front lines .... they are stationed  in the regions where  the Russian-Ukrainian population is the majority and separatist feelings are high), the war continues, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's poll numbers are in the low teens (if he was to run today, he will be wiped-out by anyone who goes against him), and while the EU has made it now possible for Ukrainians to travel to the EU visa free .... the end result of this will be millions of Ukrainians immigrating to the West as soon as they can scrap some money together to make their move. The above author mentions Crimea and that support for being now part of Russia is in decline. I do not see that .... many Crimeans blame Ukraine for the shutdown of electricity supplies .... and then there are the many anti-Russian language laws that Kiev has passed which for the Russian majority in Crimea is unacceptable. As to what is my prediction (and hope) for the future .... for Ukraine to progress forward there has to be an agreement that will give the separatist regions a great deal of authority to handle their affairs .... starting with language and culture. These same language rights must also be given to the other regions of Ukraine where Russian-Ukrainians are the majority. There also has to be a recognition that these regions are not comfortable with Kiev having all the power when it comes to money .... the regions must be given some financial say on what happens within their boundaries. Then there is Russia. Many Ukrainians may want to block any accommodation with Russia .... but many do not .... and among the Russian-Ukrainian community support for an open border with Russia is a must. Will this happen .... not with President Poroshenko in power. But Ukrainian voters are going to go back to the polls in 2019 .... and I know that there will be candidates who are willing to look at federalist solutions to solve the impasse in Ukraine .... as well as making the case for it. Otherwise .... Ukraine will not change .... and the status quo will just continue.