Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) are driven past the stand with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and other high ranking officials during a military parade marking the 105th birth anniversary of country's founding father Kim Il Sung, in Pyongyang April 15, 2017. REUTERS/Damir Sagolj
Francis Grice, National Interest: 4 Frightening Ways North Korea's Nuclear Weapons May Actually Be Used
Four ways Pyongyang and its nuclear weapons could become even more dangerous to America.
Kim Jong-un has been at it again: another intercontinental ballistic missile test and a further verbal threat against the United States. Yet, despite all of North Korea’s technical developments and rhetorical bluster, the United States and its allies are almost certainly safe from a deliberate nuclear strike. Kim Jong-un is a rational actor driven by one all-consuming goal: survival. To intentionally attack the United States or its allies with nuclear missiles would almost certainly result in nuclear retaliation or a regime-change driven invasion. As Robert Kelly noted in the National Interest, “Pyongyang knows there is no way to use their weapons for gain that would not immediately provoke massive counter-costs.”
This does not mean, however, that the world is entirely safe from a North Korean nuclear attack. There are at least four scenarios that could lead to the pariah state’s nuclear weapons being used: foreign invasion, domestic uprising, nuclear accidents, or acquisition by terrorists.
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WNU Editor: The first scenario (war) and the last scenario (selling to terrorists) are the two scenarios that we should be worried about. An accidental nuclear explosion (scenario 3) .... though unlikely .... should also not be ignored.
Well, everything is possible and these scenarios are not new, we was talking about that during the cold war. So.
ReplyDeleteI'll repeat; Kim needs just one device, one that has a fair reliable chance of being deliverable to either Seoul, Tokyo, or Beijing. Ability to strike CONUS US is just extra furtherance of his basic policy
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