Kori Schake, The Atlantic: What Total Destruction of North Korea Means
As Trump considers military options, he’s drawing unenforceable red lines.
Speaking before the UN General Assembly today, President Donald Trump announced that, unless North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, “the United States will have no choice but to totally destroy” the country. He sounded almost excited as he threatened, “Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.”
North Korea is a serious problem, and not one of Trump’s making—the last four American presidents failed to impede North Korea’s progress towards a nuclear weapon. President George H.W. Bush took unilateral action, removing U.S. nuclear weapons and reducing America’s troop levels in the region, hoping to incentivize good behavior; Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush tried to negotiate restrictions; President Barack Obama mostly averted his eyes. North Korea defied them all.
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WNU Editor: This is a critical post on President Trump's U.N. remarks on North Korea yesterday .... but I think the author is missing the big picture, which is that North Korea's development of hydrogen bombs and a delivery system to carry them has completely changed the geopolitics of the region .... if not the world. President Trump's rhetoric was hard-core yesterday .... but a response had to be delivered in view of what is being said in North Korea. To put it bluntly .... using rhetoric promising the destruction of the U.S. if his (Kim Jong-Un's) demands are not met has crossed so many red-lines that I do not know where to begin. To put everything in context .... in the past the U.S., Soviet Union, China, etc. were very careful on the rhetoric that they used when it came to nuclear weapons. And if any country had used the rhetoric that Kim Jong-Un is using now, I can assure you that a nuclear war would have erupted very quickly. That is why I worry about the future .... if war breaks out on the Korean peninsula today the deployment and usage of nuclear weapons by the U.S. will happen very quickly. No leader in Washington, Tokyo, and I will even say Seoul itself .... is going to take the chance that in such a conflict North Korea may launch nuclear missiles at their cities. This is what it means when you become a nuclear state .... a conventional war with the U.S. and its allies is no longer an option .... because U.S. military doctrine will work under the assumption that such a conflict will quickly precipitate into a nuclear one. Is North Korea aware of this .... I do not know .... but they are certainly behaving in a manner where they do not care. My prediction .... if the DMZ explodes into war, expect dozens of U.S. battlefield nuclear weapons being deployed and used to destroy suspected North Korean command and control centers, and nuclear/missile storage sites. That is what the total destruction of North Korea will look like.
Update: Since his speech yesterday the pundits and politicians in Washington have been relentless in their criticisms of President Trump and his remarks on North Korea. But for those who are living under the threat of North Korea and who are aware of the extreme danger that we are now living under, a different reaction .... Donald Trump applauded by Japan, South Korea for brazenness on North Korea in UN speech (ABC News Online).
Well spoken win, however l still do not believe that either side will revert to nuclear weapons, as the political blow back against the I.s will last a generation.
ReplyDeleteKim's silence in the last 24 hours is a real concern. Kim has realised his bluff has been called as he has never been poked, prodded and called out by any previous president ,and is looking for away to Descalate whilst saving face, or he believes actions speak louder than words and he Will put the ball back into trumps court with a more provocative demonstration that falls just shy of a kinetic attack.
My bet is within the next 10 days you will see another missile launch perhaps over flying Guam or Hawaii.
Great Speech by Trump!
ReplyDeleteBest outcome is that Dear leader retires to Tahiti.
Next Best outcome is Dear Leader catches lead poisoning and no one else dies.
Third Best outcome is the hundred families are exterminated and no one else dies.
Fourth best outcome ... not so good (but we will have full employment)
Nuclear war a disaster....not sure. The first move of the US is to make few EMP on NoKo. This will make all its weapon with electronic completely useless. The nuclear danger will be avoided and the war will be able to begin.
ReplyDeleteA huge fact ignored by the author is the fact that North Korea is the most militarized nation today and has around 7 million people in its various branches and paramilitary forces. This is out of a country of 25 million, there is little hope of targeting the regime and not the people.
ReplyDelete7 million is a paper fantasy, they could not mobilize, clothe, feed and equip one tenth of that.
Delete"To put everything in context .... in the past the U.S., Soviet Union, China, etc. were very careful on the rhetoric that they used when it came to nuclear weapons."
ReplyDeleteSorry, but Kruschev explicitly threatened to nuke the UK with ICBMs. It was in an official letter to the British Prime Minister.
Mao asked Kruschev to preemptively nuke Western nations, without even declaring war.
I've read Israeli officials threatening to nuke Iran many times before now (quoted in Israeli newspapers).
US officials have often threatened to nuke 'rogue regimes'. E.g. A high ranking State Dept official threatened to nuke Pakistan if Pakistan didn't assist the USA in the wake of 911. I saw the guy talking about it on a US documentary. He openly admitted what he'd done.
Generals and admirals make veiled threats to nuke Iran from time to time. (Only if pushed, of course./s)
Anon,
ReplyDeleteGood point. But you are also making my point. That threat from Khrushchev (as well as his shoe-stomping episode at the UN) exploded tensions between both powers. It took years after that declaration to calm things down.
Mao and Castro also wanted the Soviet Union to nuke the West .... that also poisoned relations for decades.
After 9/11 I actually read that it was President Bush himself who told Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf that if Pakistan did not assist the U.S. in its war against the Taliban, Pakistan would then be treated as a country that sponsored the attack on the U.S.. No threats to use nuclear weapons .... but what was unsaid carried a lot of weight during that time. Musharraf caved and the rest is history.
These lessons in histroy .... especially from the 1960s .... did change how such rhetoric was used. Mind you .... it is also true that the times have changed, and we are seeing it happening right now with North Korea.