A fighter from Deir al-Zor military council which fights under the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) holds the council's flag in the village of Abu Fas, Hasaka province, Syria September 9, 2017. REUTERS/Rodi Said
Seth J. Frantzman, National Interest: Will America and Russia Change the Political Dynamics in the Middle East?
There are repercussions tied to America's actions in Syria that will impact the entire Middle East region.
On Tuesday, September 12, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu sat with Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in Damascus. According to Russian embassy social-media posts they discussed joint cooperation against Islamic State. This comes on the heels of the Syrian army reaching the city of Deir ez-Zor on the Euphrates River in eastern Syria and breaking a two-and-a-half-year siege. Russia has played a key role in the Syrian army’s successes, which increasingly means that Russian-backed Syrian forces are coming into contact with the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). On September 16th the US-led coalition said a Russian airstrike east of the Euphrates river wounded several members of the SDF. As ISIS declines, its vacuum is filled with groups whose agendas are not the same and, in the case of Washington, whose policy remains unclear in eastern Syria. That is leading to greater Iranian influence across Iraq and Syria, and it leaves U.S. allies in the Gulf, Israel and on the ground in Syria wondering what comes next.
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WNU Editor: For the past two years I have been commenting that all roads in the Middle East now lead to Moscow .... Russia Now Calls The Shots In The Middle East (August 4, 2017). I cannot say the same today .... the dynamics have changed. To put it bluntly .... what was unthinkable only a year ago is now happening on the battlefields in the Middle East .... U.S., Russian generals talk face-to-face on Syria (Reuters). The U.S. and its allies have been on a tear in the Middle East for the 6 months .... not only destroying the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria but also establishing permanent bases in Syria .... Turkish State Media Exposes Secret U.S. Military Bases In Syria Potentially Endangering Troops (July 20, 2017). Will the Trump administration abandon these allies when the war is over .... I doubt it. Defense Secretary Mattis and Chief Staff John Kelly spent years fighting the wars in this part of the world .... they primarily see Iran as the main threat, and they have the ear of the President. These are men who do not cut and run .... they are going to make sure that a U.S. presence will be there for the foreseeable future .... if not beyond. Will Russia provoke a fight over this U.S. presence .... I doubt it. Sentiment is growing in Moscow that after the Islamic State has been defeated, attention should be on finding a peaceful resolution with the the remaining rebel held regions of Syria .... including the Kurdish regions of northern Syria. The Syrian war is a drain on the Russian economy, and while there is still public support for Russia's involvement in Syria, there is zero support to go head-to head against the U.S. on this battlefield. As to what Iran and its allies may want .... that is another story. Bbut as the war tapers down, pressure on Iran and its militias to leave will grow .... and if they do not, they will be seen as the occupying power. Tehran has some big decisions to make in the coming months .... and my prediction is that they are not going to leave even if everyone else wants them to. Once that happens .... things may get messy.
The Iranians are pretty good. They learned from the Russians. They learned form the war.
ReplyDeleteI am sure ISIS learned from the war, but you have to survive it to pass the knowledge on to the next generation. I am sure a few will, but many more will not be able to pass knowledge on to black flag conquerers.
Some of the Iranian battlefield success were Shia mercenaries impressed into battle. What will they do, if the Syrians want them out?
Maybe more of the success goes to Russian firepower and Iranian muscles than the SA, but the SA has had to have improved. Without such confused battle lines, some success, and fighting for their country, does Iran want to fight them?
Here is am prediction. If Iran seriously threats the Assad government and there is opening fighting. Israel will move against Hezbollah.
Can Iran operate in Syria without Hezbollah?
My question is, how far will the Kurds push to the south and risk confrontation with the Russians/SAA++. As I see it they have secured all Kurdish lands, and have protected their people from ISIS, but at some point I could imagine that they are going to not want to fight and die gaining lands that aren't really theirs. I know the Kurds are tough, and extremely loyal to the US, but will they put their foot down and say they are done with offensive actions.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. Their goal is to unify Iraqi and Syrian Kurdistan into its own independent and sovereign state. Will the US continue to turn their back on them with regards to this endeavor?
DeleteThey could take land and then cede it as part of a bargain.
ReplyDeleteThe Kurds have been there since before Alexander.
ReplyDeleteThe Arabs moved in after Sumer.
The Kurds needs a f______ homeland!
It is strange seeing you side with what could be social justice cause (native right to there land )
DeleteCould The Palestinian get the same ?
Or is it a race thing
We are making a big deal with ground problem, and that's valuable. So, the real destabilizing thing is to kill Bashar El Assad. Russian and Iranian are betting on his official validity, but who will replace him? I am not sure that Russian and Iranian will have the same guy for choice...and it will be a big problem between them which can make the association bitter and may be more.
ReplyDeleteMaybe they will hold this Arab land to use as a bargaining chip for future agreements, kind of like the area they are holding west of Lake Assad, which I'm sure they had to agree to steer clear of but with the lack of SAA forces in the area needed to liquidate it from ISIS for strategic purposes. The oil fields east of Deir ez Zoir will be of great value to whoever frees them first, but may be a very sore subject for the Assad regime, one that they may be willing to fight over.
ReplyDeleteThe US did not destroy Iraq.
ReplyDeleteIt has the same borders as before.
https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/gdp
The Iraqi GDP has been soaring since, the U.S. took out Saddam Hussein, the Butcher of Baghdad.
You won't get upset if I call Saddam Hussein the Butcher of Baghdad will you?
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2003-03-10/news/0303100303_1_torture-war-against-iraq-hussein
Remember disparecidos in Argentina is a cause célèbre, while 16,000 disappeared in Iraq makes progs quiet as church mice.
Iraq could have higher GDP, but there is misallocation of resources due to Shia hegemony. that is not on the U.S., but is in part Obama's fault. Malikai went after the Sunnis. Bush prevented this and Obama ignored this and thus condoned it. Also, the Shia dominated parliament gave squat to the Kurds.
The Barack happened, the ____ hit the fan, and the Iraqi GDP took a well aimed torp.
So Iraq was destroyed? I did not know I entered the comedy club. Can I have my money back?
Doubling of Iraqi oil production by 2020
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-08-12/doubling-of-iraqi-oil-production-by-2020/
The Baathist Regime was destroyed. True people did suffer. Tell me a war, where a dictator was overthrown, where the people did not suffer. Overthrowing a dictator does not mean that people will suffer, but there is a high correlation there. Especially since progressives abhor assassination unless the target is a Republican.
Here is some progressive eye candy.
www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2017/05/30/kathy-griffin-trump-beheading-mainstreams-islamic-state-propaganda/
The Heck with Palestine.
ReplyDeleteI gave up on a 2 state solution in 2005, when Sharon pulled out of Gaza. If there had been a peace I could have seen there have been a Palestinian state 5 or 10 years after that.
But the Palestinians could not help themselves. Sharon could have flattened them.
Palestinians are not a civic minded people. See many Christians in West Bank? Know they have fled or are fleeing.
There will be no peace until the Palestinians get their comeuppance.
BTW the Palestinians are Semitic, which is the same as the Jews. This has not thing to do with race. It has everything to do with ethnicity, chauvinism, and religion.