This September in Europe was a tense month of military posturing and preparations. Sweden recently began a three-week war game, its largest since the Cold War. Even as it did so, across the Baltic Sea, Russian and Belarusian forces concluded the Zapad military exercises – which NATO officials called “serious preparations for a big war”.
Major war games such as these bring a risk of real conflict. But neither the Russian invasion that Russia’s neighbours fear, nor the NATO incursion implicit in the Zapad scenario, are likely events. Our research on conflict escalation suggests that the US, Russia and Europe should worry about a far riskier contingency: what if a separate crisis emerged at the same time that large numbers of troops and equipment are already deployed in the region?
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WNU Editor: It would actually take a lot to trigger a war between Russia and NATO. An accident .... a cyber shutdown .... even the shooting down of an aircraft would not be enough. Mind you .... shooting down an aircraft would heighten tensions to an unprecedented degree. What would trigger a war is a coordinated attack that has been OK'd by a government in NATO and/or by NATO as a whole .... and on the other side an attack ordered by Moscow. Another event that could trigger a war would be something like this (where one side believes that they are being attacked) .... In Order For U.S. Missile Defense To Work Against North Korean Missiles, The Interceptions Will Need To Occur Over Russia.
Just look at the airliner that got shot down in Ukraine.
ReplyDeleteNato will not attack Russia. Why would we? I don't see any reason to justify this. And you need a very, very good reason to be involved in the death of perhaps millions of people on both sides. Nato is made up of democratic countries. None of those countries' populations would wish a war on Russia. Zip.none. zero.
ReplyDeleteTo change this it would require major aggression by Russian. Invasion of Poland would cause this. A nuclear first strike would cause this. Putin posting more topples pictures of him might cause it, not sure. ;-)
In all honesty, I cannot see a war between Nato and Russia happening. We're culturally too close. Millions of us live in each other's countries. We all know Russians. We have disagreements, sure. But they'll be decided in front of courts, not in front of barrels. Sometimes they will be right, sometimes we will be right. That's about it.
Our parlamentaric democrat is just like komunism in Soviet union. Its really somethin else.
DeleteThen why are you (NATO) at Russia's doorstep conducting war games that is heightening tensions?
DeleteNATO is not there for peaceful reasons, far from it. NATO was never about peace. It's to assert dominance and to make sure that the west has the higher ground by keeping other nations in check, even if it means war.
NATO is a modern day cancer. The Russians aren't exactly innocent either but I don't see them at the doorstep of America.
Hypothetically, If NATO was to suddenly disappear overnight, the world would be a huge step closer to global peace. And the Russians and the Chinese would not have any excuse for what they do.
Hope NATO gets destroyed one day. Shame it most likely won't happen.
Anon. We are probably citizens of different countries. ..but respectfully, I'm from Europe and we certainly don't wish harm on Russia. We rather have a time where we all get along - and often we do. If nato truly is hostile to your country, show evidence - I'm happy to listen to your argument and if you're truthful I'll certainly admit it. In any case, best wishes from a European :)
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