Robert Farley, National Interest: China Could Wage a Bloody War to Save North Korea (and It Could Go Nuclear)
Three years ago I outlined what the contours of a war between China and the United States might look like. Although disagreements between Washington and Beijing over Taiwan and the South China Sea have hardly subsided, it increasingly appears that affairs on the Korean Peninsula would provide the spark for conflict. If the tense situation in Korea led to war between the United States and China, how would the conflict start? Who would have the advantage? And how would it end?
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WNU Editor: Robert Farley's analysis is a good one, but he does not put much attention on the the nuclear option. I personally believe that if North Korea and/or China used nuclear weapons while fighting U.S. and South Korean forces .... this would quickly escalate into a major nuclear exchange. The time frame from the first use of a nuclear weapon to a full exchange could be measured in hours. Bottom line .... the Chinese need to be made aware that in the event of war on the Korean Peninsula, the biggest loser will be China (after North and South Korea).
Update: Here are some of the weapons that could come into play if there is a war on the Korean Peninsula .... If War With North Korea Comes, What Are the U.S. Military's Most Powerful Weapons? (Newsweek).
Actually Editor assuming an all out nuclear war occurred, which probably wouldn't last very long but one that saw nukes landing in both countries, China and the US, the big winner would be Russia who in the middle of the battle could sneak in a couple to significant locations in both countries.
ReplyDeleteWNU, absolutely. You are only wrong about one thing. NOT HOURS. MINUTES!
ReplyDeleteAfter the first nuke flies, protocol takes over. The US has been training and planning for such events for decades - China would not stand a chance, but also large parts of the US would be destroyed for sure. We are talking combined hundreds of millions of death until someone says stop.
China needs to really, really, really make sure that what they are doing - whatever it is in detail - with North Korea - is worth their and perhaps the world's end as we know it today.
This situation is produced by China. Maybe that's why the generals want to get rid of Xi? Because who else could have orchestrated this without his consent? All the oil, the mobile missile launchers, the political help in front of UN, the rocket fuel, the threats to the US and its allies not to put up defenses etc. It's dishonorable to act the way China has acted. Maybe the generals have more honor than Xi?
What happened to the 100 day deal? Xi said "give me 100 days". Nothing happened, the situation got worse during those 100 days. What has Xi actually done to reduce tensions? Anything that comes to mind?
Or maybe there's a deal behind the scenes that Xi rejected and the generals fear he ruined a great way out of this mess..Maybe the generals don't agree with Xi's plan to keep North Korea as a buffer state and feel he has lost control but still will get the blame -for sure- if a nuke from North Korea flies to the US. Maybe they realize Xi has bet it all on a chip he can no longer control. What amateurish madness
"In almost every conceivable scenario, Beijing would work hard to try to restrain Pyongyang from using its nuclear, chemical, and biological arsenals. Indeed, the United States might well declare from an early point that it viewed any use of nuclear weapons by the Beijing-Pyongyang axis as implicating both partners, and thus requiring retaliation against both."
ReplyDelete-- China's only secure way out of this mess, so it seems, is to nuke North Korea. This way they:
a) avoid embarrassment in front of the world in a defeat against the US and its allies who are happy to restrain the bully China
b) Regain control over North Korea and make it a buffer state controlled by China openly
c) Avoid any negative outcomes they no longer can fully control
They cannot let Kim know this is coming, so they tell him indirectly he better shape up. He will reject.
"A minor nuclear war with each country using 50 Hiroshima-sized atom bombs as air-bursts on urban areas could produce climate change unprecedented in recorded human history. A nuclear war between the United States and Russia today could produce nuclear winter, with temperatures plunging below freezing in the summer in major agricultural regions, threatening the food supply for most of the planet. The climatic effects of the smoke from burning cities and industrial areas would last for several years, much longer than previously thought. New climate model simulations, which are said to have the capability of including the entire atmosphere and oceans, show that the smoke would be lofted by solar heating to the upper stratosphere, where it would remain for years."
ReplyDeletehttps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_winter