People look toward the north through a barbed-wire fence near the militarized zone separating the two Koreas, in Paju, South Korea, Dec. 21, 2017.
Danny Lam, Asia Times: The economic consequences for China of a new Korean War
Kim Jong-un welcomed the new year stating that “the nuclear launch button is on his desk,” and that North Korean nuclear missiles can reach the US. A “last ditch” diplomatic effort to resolve the crisis jointly organized by the US and Canada is to take place in Vancouver on January 16.
Allies using force to resolve the North Korea problem will be the defining event of the 21st century, with a range of possibilities from a limited “surgical” strike to nuclear war between Western allies and China and/or Russia. Anticipating and positioning for economic consequences of war on the global economy will be the most consequential investment decision of the year. Depending on what China under President Xi Jinping does, the war could devastate the Chinese economy.
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WNU Editor: In the event of a new North Korean war .... I think no one will disagree that the impact on the global economy will be severe. And if China gets involved and supports the North Koreans .... I think everyone is in agreement that the impact would then be beyond disastrous. Danny Lam in the above Asia Times post games out the consequences of such a war .... and his conclusion that the big loser will be China is IMHO spot on.
A war would be unthinkable, but yeah, China would be the big looser
ReplyDelete1. Despite's China's advances in military, they are untested for what, 50 years? I wouldn't want to be a Chinese soldier facing the US military AND likely all of its allies. It would be like 30+ countries easily in such a scenario.
2. China has few friends in APAC. That's where they need them the most, but zip. Xi should really be worried about his foreign policy achievements. Sure, there's the economic success (but we all know it's also not that great as 10 years ago)..
3. Any loss/slowdown in the Chinese dream of a Chinese century (i.e. coming back to reality), will be very, very bad for Xi
So, as Xi wants to survive this, China will not intervene.
Means, China could loose its buffer state (just to point out their strategy backfired / they keep misunderstanding the west... we do not want some stupid buffer state that costs us trillions to take. For what? Most of the world, including the informed Chinese, share our believe systems, our values.. we do not need a buffer state lol.. what we want is not having a nuclear crosshair pinned on us by North Korea and financed by China).
And Xi just told the military "don't be afraid of death"..is this guy for real! ?
DeleteI disagree, I think China would withstand a crisis much better than us in the west. Just look how divided we are now even during peacetime.
ReplyDeleteI do not know about USA but here in Sweden for example, the will to fight for this country is extremly low. Everyone is into entitlement and has no will to work hard to get what you deserve.
Chinese in general seem to have a mch stronger mindset and are much more patriotic.