Reuters: Dueling tariffs raise fears of long U.S.-China trade battle
BEIJING/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States and China exchanged the first salvos in what could become a protracted trade war on Friday, slapping tariffs on $34 billion worth of each others’ goods and giving no sign of willingness to start talks aimed at a reaching a truce.
Duties on a range of Chinese goods imported into the United States took effect on Friday and were immediately countered by measures from China, with Beijing accusing the United States of triggering the “largest-scale trade war”.
The escalating fight between the world’s two biggest economies meant that it could “take economic and political pain to get these two parties to the (negotiating) table”, said Scott Kennedy, head of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
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WNU Editor: The Chinese people that I know who follow such things believe the U.S. will be throwing in the towel and looking for a way out of this trade war by the end of this year (if not sooner). I see it differently .... this is going to be a long fight, and China will acquiese to a deal only when a good chunk of their exports are under U.S. tariffs and/or restrictions, and their stock and debt markets are seriously hurting. I give it two years (maybe more), and my prediction is that it will be at a setting like the G20 where a resolution will be discussed and agreed upon.
5 comments:
Aizino, agreed.
There's also big difference between our previous struggle with Russia and China:
1. Even during the height of the cold war, there was always mutual respect between Russians, Americans and Europe (lets call it the West). They respected us, and we surely respected them, and still do. There was also a base level of trust between our nations, believe it or not. Sure, we were at each other's throats, but more than once, nuclear war was avoided because cooler heads prevailed and people in charge didn't believe we were out to kill each other by the millions. Famously, a Russian naval officer is credited for avoiding WW3 by refusing to launch missiles until verification could happen. He risked his own life for this and we in Europe and the US have not forgotten his bravery and heroism. We owe Russians a lot, and we haven't forgotten.
2. Shared believes and culture: Sure, we had (and still have) different socio-political systems, BUT, we always greatly admired Russian philosophers, mathematicians and so many other things that are good and great about Russia (e.g. their music) .. we knew about the bravery of Yuri Gagarin, we admired technological break-throughs like Sputnik and so on. Russians of course spied on us heavily (and we on them), but there was always a sense that Russians were able to invent the coolest stuff with the limitations of their state system (which was not as efficient as ours). This kind of capability ranging from poetry to mathematics and engineering was greatly admired and respected in Europe and the US. Even today we read Tolstoy, learn about Pavlov, and we greatly admire some of the later Russian heads of state
The China threat is different.
1. The Chinese truly believe "we" (everyone, from the US, to Europe, to Japan, i.e. not just the West) have held "them" back. Let that sink in. They believe they deserve to rule the world. They absolutely do. It is deeply embedded in their culture. The Chinese century myth didn't come about from nowhere. It is part of their believe system that the day will come (soon, that's the promise by the party) where they step on their rightful throne to rule the world and will squat everyone in their way like pesty flies. Talk to Chinese when they are really drunk. You would not believe the things they then say, the things they would be doing and the things they want to happen in their life time.
2. We do share much, much more with Russians, than with Chinese. Chinese are not interested in -anything- our cultures have to offer. To them, their culture is vastly superior, more ancient, better, greater, more noble, and whatever other adjective you'd find. It's like in their mind they are the original civilized world, and we are savages that held them back and stole their inventions. They will cite paper and black powder usually, and then quickly skip the rest of history. But it is what they believe, you cannot change this easily. Talk to a Chinese about Shanghai - they will all show you the same picture (from 30-40 years ago and today for comparison) and are -so- proud of their sky scrapers, their eyes water. Mention that they steal A LOT from us (trade violations, IP and copyright theft, faked goods etc), and they call you a liar, a hater, someone who wants to hold them down.. they won't say it to your face or in front of people, but in their mind you are scum.
3. The Chinese party system is highly inhumane. They are in -direct- collision course with our systems. To the Chinese party system (and you will also find this in their culture, books and movies), unity always comes before the individual. Sounds great at first, but it has been used for everything from forced resettlement to forced sterilization. Sounds familiar? Think Nazi Germany on steroids. That's what is coming our way
The Russians have been demonized and alienated. Conflict on their borders has been stoked by the United States and it's allies. Sanctions have been placed on Russian enterprises and individuals. The Eurasian Sovereigntist faction (including the military) in the Russian Government do not trust the U.S. and will be sure to push for the ties with China to strengthen.
In contrast, the Russian/Chinese relationship has grown closer on an economic and military level. The personal relationship between the leaders of the countries is warm.
The Chinese/Russian led Shanghai Cooperation Organization is growing. India and Pakistan are set to join within the month. This will mean a "membership" -+/- 4 billion people.
The "attitude" of Chinese people vis as vis others, especially the westerners and Japanese, may have a lot more to do with their treatment by said in days gone by. Chinese workers in the U.S./Canada were abused, taxed and humiliated. China was invaded, plundered and overrun with drug pushers such as the British. The Chinese, unlike most westerners who have a tough time remembering what happened 100 hours ago, let alone 100 years ago, have long memories.
The U.S. led order is having troubles enough of its own. Sky high national indebtedness, deficit spending, growing civil unrest and economic inequality. Even in the midst of the second largest economic expansion in its history, America's workers are not reaping the benefits.
Imperialism, nationalistic hubris and a sense of entitlement or exceptionalism are also not exclusive to the Chinese character.
Couple the above with trade squabbles among western allies, racial and immigration tensions, un-ceasing wars and it may be fair to say that the coming "war" is anyone's to lose.
http://johnhelmer.net/the-sale-of-another-century-the-putin-trump-summit/#more-19429
https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/06/politics/russia-sanctions-oligarchs/index.html
https://www.cfr.org/expert-brief/risks-and-rewards-sco-expansion
https://thediplomat.com/2016/12/behind-china-and-russias-special-relationship/
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/07/oecd-study-labor-conditions-confirms-that-u-s-workers-are-getting-ripped-off.html
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