Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting on agriculture in Rostov region, Russia, September 24, 2015. REUTERS/ALEXEI NIKOLSKY/RIA NOVOSTI/KREMLIN
Andrei Kolesnikov, Foreign Affairs: Why Putin's Approval Ratings Are Declining Sharply
And What It Means for Russia's Political Future
Perhaps no figure has loomed larger on the world stage of late than Russian President Vladimir Putin. His recent summit with U.S. President Donald Trump in Helsinki, U.S. concerns about future Russian interference after the 2016 presidential election, the Kremlin’s resurgence as a decisive player in the Middle East, and, of course, Putin’s easy reelection in March all seem to point to his continued strength. Yet they may also conceal a growing weakness.
Russia’s annexation of Crimea, in March 2014, was a boon for Putin’s approval ratings. Hovering around 61 to 65 percent before the seizure, they climbed to dizzying heights of above 80 percent thereafter. For many Russians, Putin’s territorial grab restored the country’s national greatness, and for that they rewarded him with increased support. In the last few months, however, rising public frustrations over domestic policy and a government proposal to weaken the social safety net have led to a sharp decline in Putin’s popularity. For Russia’s political class, this decline is a sign that Putin’s ratings have lost their cloak of invulnerability, a development that could have real implications for his new term and the potential succession fight to follow.
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WNU Editor: This article is behind a paywall, but the second paragraph sums up why Putin's poll numbers are down. It is because of changes in the social security net (raising the retirement age), concerns that the economy will go into a serious recession because of the continuation of sanctions, the return of corruption as an issue, relations with the West, and being involved in foreign wars (like Syria) where Russian public support for such interventions are near zero. But what really worries everyone around Putin (and his probable successor which I predict will be PM Medvedev), is that their poll numbers are worse than Putin's.
2 comments:
WNU,
Why Medvedev? Curious.
JH
It's really a bit sad about Putin...he's clearly intelligent and gifted. .but. .He so much wants Russia to be #1 that he makes so many mistakes and does so many things that are morally reprehensible that all his ambition won't be enough to make his dream of a restored grand Russia come true. Let's face it. .his doomsday weapons are the clearest sign of someone who wants to be taken seriously and play with the big boys.. it's just sad most of all. That Putin doesn't understand that we, the west (I'm from Europe) don't want any fights with him. We literally just want to have good relations but can't ignore the things he does. ..so he cannot truly succeed based on his own goals he has. And. .he cannot stop democracy without clamping down further and throwing Russia into the authoritarian direction. And he knows he'll be out of office soon. Which is a big problem for him. After all he amassed dozens of billions while being president illegally and corruptly. Sure. .he's save for now and you're right he'll pick his successor and perhaps even be able to reliably influence two or three elections at home. But eventually his influence will not hold. The sad thing is: Russians -like everyone else - want freedom, opportunity for all and justice. That is currently still only possible under a democratic capitalistic system...ie a creation of the West. So the very thing that beat all evildoers before will automatically come for him. .like sunlight he cannot escape. Sooner or later his own country men will ask questions where the money came from and once they can see it was stolen from them -by their dear putin -they might not be that nice anymore to him. After all, protests by young Russians started already. He sees the future. It must be a terrible burden. His only way out would be a major war that also could be uncontrollable and turn bad on him too. I think Putin sees his inescapable future and I don't think he wants to sort and wait for it. He very much believes in shaping your own future ..but he looks like he's given up. Not too late to come to the bright side, Putin. He could do great humanitarian things still...if he can resist his bad boy impulses
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