Can Taiwan Win A War Against China?

Foreign Policy: Taiwan Can Win a War With China

Beijing boasts it can seize the island easily. The PLA knows better.

When Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke to the 19th Party Congress about the future of Taiwan last year, his message was ominous and unequivocal: “We have firm will, full confidence, and sufficient capability to defeat any form of Taiwan independence secession plot. We will never allow any person, any organization, or any political party to split any part of the Chinese territory from China at any time or in any form.”

This remark drew the longest applause of his entire three-hour speech—but it’s not a new message. The invincibility of Chinese arms in the face of Taiwanese “separatists” and the inevitability of reunification are constant Chinese Communist Party themes. At its base, the threat made by Xi is that the People’s Liberation Army has the power to defeat the Taiwanese military and destroy its democracy by force, if need be. Xi understands the consequences of failure here. “We have the determination, the ability and the preparedness to deal with Taiwanese independence,” he stated in 2016, “and if we do not deal with it, we will be overthrown.”

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WNU Editor: Any Chinese invasion of Taiwan will not be a surprise. It will take weeks for the Chinese military to assemble the force that it would need .... plenty of time for Taiwan to prepare. Taiwan is also heavily armed, and the Taiwan military would be prepared for any Chinese invasion. The Taiwanese also have the firepower to cause enormous damage to any invading Chinese force .... and that is even before any Chinese troops have reached the beaches. But the big impact on China will be geopolitical. Sanctions will be imposed immediately, and they would be long lasting. Such a Chinese invasion will cause a massive realignment in Asia against China, starting with a massive arms buildup among all nations in the region.