What Is Next In Ukraine

A fighter jet flies above as Ukrainian soldiers sit on an armoured personnel carrier in Kramatorsk, in eastern Ukraine April 16, 2014. Ukrainian government forces and separatist pro-Russian militia staged rival shows of force in eastern Ukraine on Wednesday amid escalating rhetoric on the eve of crucial four-power talks in Geneva on the former Soviet country's future. REUTERS/Marko Djurica

Mark Munson, National Interest: Dark Days Ahead for Ukraine

While there are glimmers of optimism, Ukraine confronts a challenging future, both at home and in its near abroad.

During a panel at the Center for the National Interest on September 20, two experts sought to tamp down what they dubbed as undue optimism in the United States and Western Europe regarding Ukraine’s future. Keith Darden, an associate professor at American University’s School of International Service (SIS), set the tone with the observation that “Historically, optimism is bad for peace.” He said that the consensus among Western foreign policymakers is that Ukraine is on a positive trajectory, while Russia is on a negative one with time running against Moscow. The other panelist was Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.

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WNU Editor: I am one of those who is not optimistic at all. To me, Ukraine is deeply divided, and we will be seeing these differences when Ukrainians go to the polls to elect a new President on March 31, 2019.  The current leadership .... starting with President Poroshenko .... will be gone (and deservedly so). As to what will replace it .... unfortunately more of the same. I have said this before, but to reverse this trend Ukraine needs a leader to first bring peace and reconciliation with its Russian minority. This can be done by making a serious peace agreement with the Russian rebels in the east by respecting their cultural rights, coupled with an agreement that Ukraine will not join NATO for X years. Most Ukrainians do want peace, and they do not want to join NATO. This is why it will be a  win-win for any political party that pursues it. The second thing that this new leader will need to do is to break the culture of corruption that exists in the country, starting by busting up the oligarchs and their huge companies. This will then be followed by implementing a legal system that respects contracts and due process. The third goal will be to jump-start the economy, and I believe this can be done by presenting a long term plan to encourage entrepreneurship and small to medium businesses via through tax and regulatory policy. It is only when I see a Ukraine government pursuing these goals .... that I will then feel confident that there is a positive future for Ukraine.