Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro Will Not Be Overthrown Anytime Soon

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores are seen atop a military vehicle during a military exercise in Puerto Cabello, Venezuela January 27, 2019. Milaflores Palace/Handout via REUTERS

Clayton Besaw, Business Insider/The Conversation: The odds of a military coup in Venezuela rise every day Maduro stays in office

* Two weeks after Venezuela's embattled president Nicolás Maduro's re-inauguration, opposition leader Juan Gauidó has declared himself the country's rightful president.
* As a result, analysts worldwide are debating whether a coup against Maduro would be good or bad for Venezuelan democracy.
* Clayton Besaw, a political risk analyst at the University of Central Florida, is attempting to predict the likelihood of a military mutiny against Maduro.
* According to Besaw, Guaidó's challenge won't result in Maduro's immediate exit.
* But the longer Maduro stays in power, the more likely he is to be removed by force.

It would be reasonable to expect the worst for Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela's embattled president.

Two weeks after Maduro's re-inauguration, opposition leader Juan Gauidó has declared himself the country's rightful president. The power struggle follows a failed military mutiny against Maduro, whose easy re-election in May 2018 during an economic, political, and humanitarian crisis has lead many to say Venezuela is a dictatorship.

Analysts worldwide are already debating whether a coup against Maduro — with or without US backing — would be good or bad for Venezuelan democracy.

As a political risk analyst, it is my job to predict when leaders will be overthrown.

Surprisingly, the coup forecaster I use, CoupCast, shows Maduro hanging on — at least for now.

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WNU Editor: I concur with Clayton Besaw's analysis. Nicolás Maduro still has a lot of support, and as long as countries like Cuba/Russia/and China continue to support him .... as well as a good part of the army .... he is not going to be removed anytime soon.