Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- June 27, 2019

Andrew J. Nathan, Foreign Affairs: How China Really Sees the Trade War

Xi Still Believes He Has the Upper Hand

When Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump meet on the margins of the G-20 summit in Osaka later this week to seek a trade deal, Xi is likely to soften the customary formality of Chinese diplomacy by calling the U.S. president “my friend.” Beneath the cordial surface, however, Xi will yield nothing. Trump must then decide whether to accept the Chinese offer that has been on the table ever since early 2017 and end the trade war or to allow the U.S. and Chinese economies to drift further toward decoupling.

“We’re going to win either way,” Trump likes to say. But according to two Chinese colleagues who contributed to this article but cannot attach their names, Beijing policymakers believe he is either misinformed or bluffing.

Read more ....

Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- June 27, 2019

Talking trade at G20: Can Xi veer Trump away from tariffs? -- Srinivas Mazumdaru, DW

Possible outcome of Trump-Xi meeting: A truce in trade war -- Paul Wiseman, AP

Trump vs Xi: the new Cold War is hotting up -- Gerard Baker, The Spectator

On China: We Won’t Be Fooled Again -- Andrea Little Limbago & Andy Keise, RCD

Russia Has Low Expectations Ahead of Trump-Putin G20 Meeting -- Dimitri Alexander Simes, National Interest

Experts fear ‘snowball effect’ as Iran abandons nuclear deal -- Jon Gambrell, AP

Is there a way out of the Iran-US crisis? -- Marwan Kabalan, Al JAzeera

A breakdown of what’s at stake in US-Iran crisis -- Robert Burns and Jon Gambrell, AP

In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan's power begins to crumble -- Daniel Bellut, DW

Europe Has Spent Years Trying to Prevent ‘Chaos’ in the Sahel. It Failed -- Peter Dörrie, WPR

Georgian Government Faces Worst Crisis Since 2012 -- Giorgi Menabde, Jamestown Foundation

Greek election preview: The end of the road for Syriza? -- Zoe Alipranti, LSE

It's the Mexican Economy, Stupid! -- James Roberts, National Interest

Is the US already in a recession? This economist thinks it's possible -- Paul Davidson, USA TODAY

Trade Wars After the Global Production Revolution -- Emily Blanchard, Vox EU

How the world's richest 1 per cent may be fuelling the problems they're trying to help solve -- Tasha Wibawa, ABC News Online