A U.S. Navy F/A-18C aircraft prepares to land on the runway of the U.S.S. Nimitz aircraft carrier during a tour of the ship in the South China Sea on May 23, 2013.Edgar Su / Reuters
Kathy Gilsinan, The Atlantic: How the U.S. Could Lose a War With China
It’s not that the Chinese Communist Party would take over Washington. But in its own region, China has the advantage.
If a war broke out between the United States and China, the clash between two of the world’s most powerful militaries would be horrific. And the United States could very well lose.
That’s a concern among current and former defense officials and military analysts, one of whom told Breaking Defense earlier this year that in war games simulating great-power conflict in which the United States fights Russia and China, the United States “gets its ass handed to it.”
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WNU Editor: All of these major war scenarios do not involve the use of nuclear weapons. Unfortunately, I can see many scenarios where tactical nuclear weapons will be used, and in the case Russia, the use of strategic nuclear weapons.
A philosophy of "if we aren't going to be able to live on this Earth neither will you" will prevail and will conclude the next major confrontation.
ReplyDeleteIt is a good philosophy.
ReplyDeleteIt gives the Chinese fascists a choice. Play nice and live (& everyone lives) or die.
It is a variation of the prisoner dilemma
China can live and let live or they can be tyrannical.
From what we know of Bob statements, he is rooting for the Chinese. He is one of those "Better Red than Dead" types. There isn't a day he hasn't planted a wet one on his ass just in case.
The picture is not really an aircraft carrier.
ReplyDeleteAnon
ReplyDelete"From what we kno ..."
Actually you know nothing. "It" also gives Americans and all others who hold the trigger on world death a warning.
When I worked in customer support, computer technology and such, we had a way of designating what in too many cases was the problem and on this board you fit that description perfectly. PEBC&K.
Dave
ReplyDeleteIt is amazing what they can do with camouflage painting these days?
You never worked customer support, because you have never worked.
ReplyDeleteand you never learned decency...only young children make pissy remarks like yours, anon
ReplyDeleteIn my view, war is most likely in three situations:
ReplyDelete1. The Fat Boy in North Korea starts a conflict that gets out of hand. This is actually fairly unlikely, in my view. China would likely oppose any war on the Korean peninsula, which would create instability that China may not be able to control. Such instability is not in China's interest. Nevertheless, China can influence, but does not fully control, the Fat Boy, and it is possible that he could start a war there that drags China into confrontation with the USA and Japan.
2. Taiwan declares independence. This has long been a very public red line for China. For that reason, I think Taiwan is extremely unlikely to formally declare independence. The United States should continue to sell weapons to Taiwan, so to complicate China's invasion plans. A Taiwan strong enough to create uncertainty in China about the success of its invasion will be sufficient to prevent the Chinese from attempting a quick, almost easy conquest of Taiwan. But all Taiwanese leaders know that declaring independence would force China's hand, and they will not provoke China in that manner.
3. The Senkaku Islands. In my view, this is more likely to result in a war. The conditions preceding such a war would include:
a. The USA resumes a military decline by reducing its defense budget again.
b. The USA's political leadership refocuses inward on domestic affairs, and reduces the USA's engagement overseas. Pres. Trump has already started this. It is easy to imagine several of his possible successors continuing, and intensifying, this inward pivot.
c. China's calculation that (i) its takeover of the Senkaku Islands would not be resisted, or (ii) if resisted, the resistance would be defeated. Think the Argentine calculation before the Falklands War, and you get the idea.
d. China's takeover of the islands would be a huge strategic victory, showing (i) the USA is a paper tiger, (ii) Japan is a paper tiger, and (iii) China is the regional hegemon. All three factors support China's views that (1) the USA and the Western nation state system are declining, and (2) that China is the rising superpower that will be, in effect, suzerain over all of Planet Earth. Such a victory would be very, very tempting to China.
4. China would have to calculate the likely American and Japanese reaction to China's conquest of the islands. I think that, in the aftermath, Japan would develop nuclear weapons and rearm seriously, whether or not the USA fought and was defeated. Similarly, I think that, in the aftermath of defeat, the USA would likely begin a military buildup and become very anti-Chinese in its diplomatic actions. Neither Japan's nor the USA's reactions would be in China's interest.
Publius,
DeleteYeah to what you've laid out. It seems to me that it's China that must make a decision. The US, Japan, and S. Korea can continue their policies. I have a suspicion that Xi doesn't have as much time for good things to happen as he is letting on. He and China have made moves that are very hard to pull back from and one of Xi's greatest dangers is domestic reaction in China.
To me Kim and N Korea are side shows.
"a. The USA resumes a military decline by reducing its defense budget again.
ReplyDeleteb. The USA's political leadership refocuses inward on domestic affairs, and reduces"
The fastest way for Democrats to buy votes is to reduce the defense budget, borrow money, and print money. A bunch of short sighted grifters they are.
Publius
ReplyDeleteI like and agree with that analysis.
The recent Russian/Chinese demonstration re., South Korea at this point is most interesting.
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