Will Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau Lose The Next Election?

Source: Ipsos polls, most recent of 1,000 adults living in Canada conducted July 12-15; margin of error: +/- 3.5 pct. pts.

Wall Street Journal: How Justin Trudeau Lost His Rock-Star Popularity

Revelations about the Canadian prime minister’s advocacy for SNC-Lavalin, which faces fraud allegations, threaten his party’s majority.

Justin Trudeau did little wrong in his supporters’ eyes during his first three years as Canada’s prime minister. In the fourth, his popularity has dropped so far his party may lose its majority in October elections.

A secretly taped call is one reason why. Just before Christmas, Canadian Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould turned on her iPhone voice recorder for a call with the country’s top bureaucrat, Michael Wernick. Mr. Trudeau and senior officials had already pressed her and her chief aide 20 times in calls, messages and in person to let a major Canadian firm avoid a criminal trial on bribery and fraud charges. She had resisted.

On the phone, Mr. Wernick said the company, SNC-Lavalin Group Inc., was considering selling itself or moving abroad, and Mr. Trudeau believed it should be given the chance to negotiate an out-of-court settlement.

Mr. Wernick, unaware of the recording, said: “I think he is going to find a way to get it done.”

Ms. Wilson-Raybould didn’t relent: “This is going to look like nothing but political interference by the prime minister, by you, by everybody else that has been involved in this.”

That’s exactly how it looked to many Canadian voters when the recording surfaced after parliamentary hearings in February and March exposed details of the Trudeau government’s moves to advocate for the engineering-and-construction firm. Testimony in the hearings captivated the public and turned Ms. Wilson-Raybould into one of the most recognizable Canadian politicians outside Mr. Trudeau.

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WNU Editor: The above article focuses on Prime Minister Trudeau's office trying to influence a criminal case of a strong political supporter and backer. But there are many other reasons why Trudeau's popularity is decreasing. A perceived Canadian government anti-oil stance in the oil rich province of Alberta. The cultural and demographic impact of massive immigration in French Quebec. Environmentalist groups not satisfied that Prime Minister Trudeau's climate change policies are making a difference. Indigenous groups not satisfied with the Prime Minister's attempts at reconciliation. Economic concerns over budget deficits and tax and spend policies. Bottom line. Four years ago then candidate Trudeau was a blank slate. Today he has a record, and many former supporters are disappointed.