The Russian stock market is up 33% so far this year, despite low growth and ongoing pressure on household budgets. Sergei Fadeichev / TASS
Jake Cordell, Moscow Times: What’s Next for Russia’s Economy?
Analysts predict low growth, low inflation and a strong stock market in the final two months of the year.
A fresh roster of forecasts and data on the Russian economy suggests slow growth and low inflation coupled with robust corporate performance will mark the final two months of the year.
Meanwhile, economy-watchers remain fixed on a crucial Central Bank meeting in December and are divided over whether Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina will deliver a further rate cut before the New Year.
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WNU Editor: I disagree with these stats. I know that they are underestimating the Russian construction industry that is doing a lot better than the stagnation shown by official statistics. The underground market where almost everyone has a side business is also doing very well, and it is not used in these measurements. It has also been a banner year for Russia's stock markets (33% increase over one year), and overall personal/corporate/government debt is low. Everyone is also working, with unemployment at record lows. Inflation is also historically low. Sanctions have also helped. It resulted in the development of local industries to replace the goods and services that are not permitted under this ban. If I was to peg what is the real GDP growth, I would peg it at around 3 to 4 percent. My cousins in Russia who are in the construction business think the growth is closer to 5%.
ReplyDeleteA Russian speaking pundit and former intel opined that Congress royally messed up with the sanctions. In their opinion the sanction backfired.
A) Before sanction USA exported pork to Russian
B) After sanctions, the Russian pork industry developed and there are no more exports to Russian.
C) Not only that, but now Russia export pork to China.
This is what Democrats have done. They panicked some RINO Republicans with them.
Targeting certain individuals is one thing, but the Congress Critters did more than this.
It is very hypocritical to criticize Trump, when Congress has started wrecking agricultural exports, when
Sanctions can work, but I am of the short and sharp school of thought. If the sanctions are gradual and long the target has time to adapt. Sanction backfire or can backfire.
I think Trump's considered tariffs are much better for American business in the long run than Congress's hodgepodge, feel good sanctions.
ReplyDeleteEverything is not rosy for the Russian pork industry, but the sanction of 2014 did have an effect.
Congress did not war game it beforehand. They took what they thought was an easy but effective way out.
U.K. pork farmers feel the pressure from Russia's sanctions
At the beginning of August, Russia imposed sanctions as retaliation to the extensive Western sanctions handed down in response to Russia's involvement in Ukraine.
www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2014/08/12/UK-pork-farmers-feel-the-pressure-from-Russias-sanctions/5941407842487/
Russia’s pig industry turns loss-making
More than half of all pig farms in Russia are at risk of becoming loss-making in 2019 due to the rising production costs and falling purchasing prices on the domestic market, according to a forecast of the Russia’s National Union of Pork Producers (NUPP).
In 2019, the wholesale prices are expected to dip by 5% to 10% to the lowest level seen since the introduction of food embargo in 2014, when all European pork were wiped out from the Russia’s market, RUPP said.
www.pigprogress.net/World-of-Pigs1/Articles/2019/9/Russias-pig-industry-turns-loss-making-478177E/
ReplyDeleteWNU; your comments contrast with the widespread reporting in various publications for some time now that Russia's economy is hurting. Thanks for the insights. I can recall but one article this year that was positive. It was a surprise.
The evils of capitalism; flexibility and relatively timely responses to situations good or bad.
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ReplyDeleteRussia is not anymore USSR. That's not an open free market too. That said, Russia is people first and they are Caucasian as us.
ReplyDelete