This Is What Would Happen If The Russian President Should Pass Away Unexpectedly

Russian President Putin and the Security Council. © Sputnik / Alexei Druzhinin

Alexander Morozov, Moscow Times: If Putin Were to Leave Tomorrow

What would the first 90 days after a hypothetical death of the head of state look like?

In recent years, there have been quite a few academic studies of power transition scenarios in long-lasting personalist regimes. More than 200 post-1945 dictatorships have been analysed. The objective is to examine the role of various institutions in the transition of power. The consequences are compared: what is the nature of transition when the regime changes during the lifetime of the leader? And after his death?

As we know, a long-lasting dictatorship eventually brings societal expectations of a leader’s death. Anxiety starts to rise among the elites and rumors begin to swirl. Many of the changes awaited by large social groups get pushed back to an imagined point beyond the head of state’s demise. Dissonant expectations and a general fear of destabilization take root. During a leader's lifetime, the most incredible ideas about the transformation are voiced. Beyond the threshold of his reign there lies a future which is undefined.

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WNU Editor: The process of Russian Presidential succession is very straight forward. Power will be transferred to the Security Council that is headed by the Prime Minister, and a Presidential election must be called and held within 90 days. What will not be straight forward will be the election itself, and the results. Russian elections are organized well in advance, even the "fraud" part of it. A sudden election will throw everything into chaos, and I predict that it will become a free-for-all. In the current situation the front runner will be Russian Prime Minister Medvedev. He has the experience and the backing of the Russian establishment. But he is not an energetic politician, and he is not liked by the electorate. I also do not expect him to get 50% of the vote, thereby guaranteeing a second vote. As for that second vote, I have no idea on what may happen in that scenario. It will be a first for Russia, and If Russian PM Medvedev does win, it will be by a squeaker.