Alexander Drago / Reuters
David Corn & Matt Cohen. Mother Jones: With a War Against Iran Brewing, Don’t Listen to the Hawks Who Lied Us Into Iraq
Shortly after the news broke that a US airstrike in Baghdad ordered by President Donald Trump had killed Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force, Ari Fleischer went on Fox News and proclaimed, “I think it is entirely possible that this is going to be a catalyst inside Iran where the people celebrate this killing of Soleimani.”
Here we go again.
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WNU Editor: US hawks are not in the driver's seat in this crisis, even though they are applauding the demise of Soleimani while issuing calls to put more pressure on Iran. The ball has always been in Iran's court, and it is still there. What Iran will do in the coming days/weeks/months will determine how much this crisis will escalate. So here is my prediction. For now they will do nothing. Maybe a terror or military strike here or there, some actions in the Straits of Hormuz, but a major escalation is not going to happen. In fact, I believe they are in shocked with what has happened. After all, if someone like Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani can be killed, then no one is really safe. With hindsight I have to say that Tehran made a major strategic and tactical mistake when they green-lighted another rocket attack on a US base that killed a US contractor and wounded scores of American soldiers last week. They underestimated the U.S. response, and for that they lost a major militia HQ, equipment, and 25 fighters. They also did not take seriously President Trump's threat that the US would respond even more forcefully if an attack should be repeated in the future. To put it bluntly, President Trump drew a red line. But instead of heeding it an attack was organized and launched against the US embassy in Baghdad. The fact that Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani showed up a day later tells me that he wanted to see for himself what had happened, and to make plans on what to do next. I have mentioned more than once on this blog that when Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani shows up, mayhem and destruction soon follow. I am sure his arrival in Baghdad on Thursday telegraphed to Washington that something big was going to happen, and the final decision to take him out was then made when the opportunity arrived. So what will happen next? Tomorrow the Iraqi parliament is going to meet, and they are going to pass a motion that all US forces should leave Iraq. I personally hope that President Trump will take that as an opportunity to leave Iraq, and do so promptly. The hawks in Washington are going to scream at President Trump that should do everything in his power to stay, but enough is enough. Iraq was a mess before, it is a mess today, and it will be a mess tomorrow. This is not our fight.
Popular uprising. No troops. Ayatollahs gone from direct government.
ReplyDeleteThat would be optimal.
If they hold off for while might it suggest that they are close to having nukes?
ReplyDeleteIran has had numerous and very powerful allies for decades, namely Russia and China. While they had these allies there was nothing the US could do to them.
ReplyDeleteThe monster has died. This could only have happened if Russia and China abandoned the monster. Why would they have done so? Trump diplomacy? He is brilliant!!!
You could suggest lots of things Lord Haw Haw.
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ReplyDeleteI think the best thing for the entire area is the demonstraters of late. The younger generations.
I agree editor this is not our fight. Actually we could say this about a number of places where we are involved in.
ReplyDeleteNorth Korea/South Korea, China/Tawain, China/Hong Kong, Russia/Ukraine, Russia/former Soviet Republics, and Georgia/Russia just to name a few. These aren't our fights either.
I suspect nothing will get done on withdrawal of US forces either. First of all I don't think the Iraqi government isn't serious. IMHO this is all for show on their part. The Iraqi government benefits tremendously from the arrangement with the US at little to no cost to them. If they were serious about wanting us out, I have no doubt team Trump would be moving. Alas, they aren't serious.
Obviously we need to keep an eye/handle on Iran. After a withdrawal from Iraq, can this be done ineffectively?
The attack that took out the Iranian general was extraordinary. This would be a bit like the sudden elimination of a top coach from a US football team. With the elimination of the brain the effectiveness of the team is going to be diminished for some time. With the loss of this top brain in the Iranian military the ability of the Iranian military to be an effective fighting force is going to be diminished for some time. As such, if we lose an effective front in Iraq it shouldn't be as devastating to us it might have been otherwise allowing us to make other arrangements as it will take the Iranian military some time to recover from this loss. How long it will take them is unknown. I'd estimate between 3 to 15 months erring on the side of the shorter timeframe. Also, I expect Trump and the US military to keep up the pressure on Iran!! Don't take "the foot off the gas!!"