Politico: Fears mount of a coronavirus-induced depression
Economists increasingly warn that Washington’s current efforts won’t be enough to fight a downturn approaching the devastation seen eight decades ago.
Forecasts of doom for the American economy are quickly turning from gray to pitch black.
As Congress haggles over a multitrillion-dollar coronavirus rescue package, analysts are warning the U.S. could face a prolonged depression rather than the kind of short recession and swift bounce back that President Donald Trump and his top aides expect. And they’re raising questions about whether current government efforts to cushion the economy from the damage will be anywhere near enough.
Across Wall Street and the economic world, forecasters are quickly ramping up their predictions of massive job losses and declines in economic activity by as much as an annualized 50 percent in the second quarter of the year. They’re offering estimates unseen since the Great Depression that began in 1929 and continued for a brutal decade, reshaping governments and economies across the globe.
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WNU Editor: The Russian in me says "hope for the best, expect and prepare for the worst". I am preparing for hard times. I am resigned that this pandemic will last into next year, and I base this judgment on history. Pandemics in the past always took a minimum of a year to burn themselves out, and I do not see this current pandemic as an exception to that rule.
More Commentary On Growing Fears That The World Is Facing A Global Depression
A U.S. recession? Probably. Depression? Only if the virus is untamed -- Reuters
Virus charts bode second ‘Great Recession’ -- Asia Times
Top economists see echoes of depression in US sudden stop -- Bloomberg
Coronavirus could plunge the global economy into a 'Greater Depression,' 'Dr. Doom' economist warns -- Business Insider
Coronavirus pandemic has delivered the fastest, deepest economic shock in history -- Nouriel Roubini, The Guardian
Why a Coronavirus Depression Could Be Worse than the Great Recession -- Hunter DeRensis, National Interest
Tap dancing your to heaven fools
ReplyDeleteI agree. This thing is going to go on for awhile. At some point very soon, we are simply going to have to fully reopen our economy and this thing will simply need to run its course.
ReplyDeletePathogens and their interactions with the human immune system are nothing new. There's really nothing "novel" about the coronavirus. What is novel is the government's response to this. Maybe this draconian response was necessary. Unfortunately the "experts" never really allowed for any kind of a debate. They still seem oblivious to the economic and the social costs that their policies are causing.
By choosing the course they chose of "social distancing" and quarantines the acquisition of herd immunity is delayed and the stress induced by such policies lowers immune respons . Once we have no choice but to reopen our economy fully, people who normally wouldn't have gotten sick any now get sick from this and a variety of other ailments. The extreme stress and isolation caused by shelter in place orders undermine immune response.
At the start, the "experts" had the option of doing nothing. Allow this to run its course. The pathogen does its thing. The human immune system does its thing and the more the human immune system "sees" it thr faster we develop natural immunity. At this point, it appears this may well have been a better option. Unfortunately as with governments they generally simply cannot stay out of it.
We can recover fairly quickly if the government reopens most of the economy by Easter. Then extends grants to a number if businesses who have been affected by this. Then gets out of the way.
Of course the fallout from when this disease runs it course as well as the fallout from the government's attempts to contain it will need to be dealt with. As far as the fallout from the disease, there are a number of unknowns. The human immune system is VERY GOOD. I suspect it will adapt very quickly and defeat this thing very fast. Feed it the proper "fuel" and it's even better!! The terrible fallout from the government's policies in contrast is very, very real and was easily predicted.
ReplyDeleteThis hasn’t stopped lobbyists from asking for more. Here’s the most hilarious example: a letter from the Plastics Industry Association to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, highlighting how single-use, disposable plastics are “the most sanitary choice” for food purchase and transport, in an attempt to demonize reusable bags as virus-laden. “We are asking that the Department of Health and Human Services investigate this issue and make a public statement on the health and safety benefits seen in single-use plastics,” reads the letter from the plastics lobby. Already New Hampshire has temporarily banned reusable bags, based on sketchy science mostly underwritten by the industry.
Then there are fintechs, the online lending firms, who have pronounced themselves “ready, willing and able” to assist small businesses. They could become eligible for the $350 billion-plus lending program in the bailout bill. A week earlier, the FDIC cleared a path for companies like this to get banking licenses, while nobody was paying attention.
Perhaps the most outrageous corporate maneuvering comes from Phialdelphia. Joel Freedman, a hedge fund manager, bought up Hahnemann University Hospital and closed it for the real estate last year. Now, additional hospital capacity is desperately needed everywhere. The city asked Freedman (who will benefit from the aforementioned real estate tax break) to re-open the hospital, and Freedman asked for $1 million a month in rent. The city finally broke off negotiations, and 500 beds remain inactive.
Just to the north of this, Easton Hospital, a for-profit facility owned by private equity network Steward Health (Cerberus Capital Management is the parent company), issued a deadline for a $40 million state bailout to remain open, shamelessly exploiting the crisis. Cerberus is a $50 billion private equity firm, squeezing a cash-strapped state that needs its hospitals open with infections increasing. It’s revolting.
But it’s also how America works, never tiring to find opportunity in a castastrophe.
WASHINGTON — Early on, the dozen federal officials charged with defending America against the coronavirus gathered day after day in the White House Situation Room, consumed by crises. They grappled with how to evacuate the United States consulate in Wuhan, China, ban Chinese travelers and extract Americans from the Diamond Princess and other cruise ships.
ReplyDeleteThe members of the coronavirus task force typically devoted only five or 10 minutes, often at the end of contentious meetings, to talk about testing, several participants recalled. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, its leaders assured the others, had developed a diagnostic model that would be rolled out quickly as a first step.
But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and company executives.
The result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a looming public health catastrophe.
The absence of robust screening until it was “far too late” revealed failures across the government, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former C.D.C. director. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, said the Trump administration had “incredibly limited” views of the pathogen’s potential impact. Dr. Margaret Hamburg, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said the lapse enabled “exponential growth of cases.”
And Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, a top government scientist involved in the fight against the virus, told members of Congress that the early inability to test was “a failing” of the administration’s response to a deadly, global pandemic. “Why,” he asked later in a magazine interview, “were we not able to mobilize on a broader scale?”
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ReplyDeleteWhat about B Poster's remarks were full of shit? I agree with WNU that the Wuhan flu has the potential to last a year. But I don't believe that a global depression is inevitable. One way it would be a lot more likely is to keep the economy shut for a long duration. Then all bets are off. But that's more of a political question.
ReplyDeleteI view with deep loathing anyone who shrieks that we have to shutter or economy for months. Anyone who advocates that is safely resourced and is hoping for a mass failure in order to achieve some sort of political result. IE: Trump defeat, Establishment back in.
That's not gonna happen.
Practically overnight, Dr. Birx has become a partisan Rorschach test. Conservative commentators have praised her as a truth-teller, pushing back on coronavirus hysteria. Critics of Mr. Trump accused her of squandering the credibility she had developed as a health official in Democratic and Republican administrations.
ReplyDeleteDr. Birx’s comments, especially those dismissing ventilator shortages, startled some health experts. While most hospitals might have sufficient supplies at the moment, many worry about a crush of patients in the very near future.
Dr. Howard Bauchner, the editor in chief of The Journal of the American Medical Association, warned Friday of “a potential tsunami coming” on a video call with hundreds of other physicians about rationing ventilators and critical care.
Dr. Ryan A. Stanton, a board member at the American College of Emergency Physicians, said Dr. Birx sounded like “the builders of the Titanic saying the ship can’t sink.”
Public health officials have emphasized that regions of the country less urgently in need of more ventilators could donate some of their inventory to health systems in more desperate need, a point that Dr. Birx made Thursday night.
Mr. Trump on Friday, appearing to respond to widespread criticism from various cities and states, announced that the federal government would issue contracts to buy thousands of ventilators from a variety of large and small makers. But it appeared doubtful the devices could be produced in time to help the overwhelmed hospitals.
President Donald Trump's pride and ego will have "global repercussions" for tackling the coronavirus pandemic, said a South Korean doctor whose aggressive approach to tackling the virus was a model for the country's success.
ReplyDeleteMin Pok-kee told Wired this week that the US was "very late" in realizing the importance of mass testing for the virus and now risked suffering a crisis like the one in Italy, the effects of which would be felt across the world.
"Trump has spoken dismissively about testing because of his ego. As we scientists see it, he's motivated by pride," Min said, adding, "In the US, Trump is talking about taking care of his own, but the entire world has to respond in sync."
The US this week became the country with the most cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus.
And the Plagiaristic Parrot, whose hearts deepest desire to vote for the plagiarist Quid pro Joe, is doing its copy and paste routine 3 times. What a freaking loser.
ReplyDeleteWASHINGTON — Sen. Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, says that Trump administration officials declined an offer of early congressional funding assistance that he and other senators made on Feb. 5 during a meeting to discuss the coronavirus.
ReplyDeleteThe officials, including Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, said they “didn’t need emergency funding, that they would be able to handle it within existing appropriations,” Murphy recalled in an interview with Yahoo News’ “Skullduggery” podcast.
“What an awful, horrible catastrophic mistake that was,” Murphy said.
On Feb. 5, Murphy tweeted: “Just left the Administration briefing on Coronavirus. Bottom line: they aren't taking this seriously enough. Notably, no request for ANY emergency funding, which is a big mistake. Local health systems need supplies, training, screening staff etc. And they need it now.”
Murphy told Yahoo News that the funding he and other congressional leaders wanted to allocate nearly two months ago would have paid for essential preventative measures, including hiring local screening and testing staff, researching a vaccine and treatments and the stockpiling of needed medical supplies.
ReplyDeleteAnd Parrot lost again at 5:20.
Sad but this will go on for 1 to 10 more years. The capstone of nothing.
The Bureau of Indian Affairs told the Mashpee Wampanoag Tribe on Friday that their reservation will be "disestablished" and their land taken out of trust, per an order from the Secretary of the Interior David Bernhardt, tribe Chairman Cedric Cromwell announced in a post on the tribe's website.
ReplyDelete"Today's action was cruel and it was unnecessary. The Secretary is under no court order to take our land out of trust. He is fully aware that litigation to uphold our status as a tribe eligible for the benefits of the Indian Reorganization Act is ongoing," Cromwell wrote. "It begs the question, what is driving our federal trustee's crusade against our reservation?"
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ReplyDeleteHere we have the bottom of the septic tank: same old insults and no comment worth reading...go change your diaper. You are shitting your nappies
And Parrot lost again at 5:20.
Sad but this will go on for 1 to 10 more years. The capstone of nothing.
ReplyDeleteAlex Rodriguez might not be able to add “public health official” to his growing post-baseball resume, but he has his president’s trust.
The retired Yankees superstar, business mogul, and high school graduate was reportedly recruited by President Trump earlier this week for his thoughts on coronavirus, according to ABC News’ John Santucci and Katherine Faulders on Friday.
A-Rod’s fiancee, Jennifer Lopez, was also in on the call, even though the multi-hyphenate entertainer has yet to complete — or to anyone’s knowledge, start — any formalized epidemiological studies.
ReplyDelete"President Trump reportedly reached out to former New York Yankees player and current MLB analyst Alex Rodriguez for his thoughts on the administration's response to the coronavirus pandemic." - The Hill
Part of the battle is is PSAs, morale, messaging etc.
You typically kick off a new initiative with a lot of hoopla. For instance for quality initiatives with slogan that encapsulate key elements of the vision, process, etc. If it ends there, then it is a failure.
However, Trump is doing much more than messaging.
Rush Limbaugh says the lame stream media did not make him, so they cannot destroy him.
The same goes for Trump.
But there goes Fredo carrying water for the legacy media, ever the slave.
ReplyDelete"A-Rod’s fiancee, Jennifer Lopez ..."
Those college kids partying in large crowds during spring break although advised not to, probably won't listen to Trump, but they may listen to Jennifer Lopez.
Very smart move by Trump.
Not very smart commentary by Salucci and other idiots.
Desperate for medical equipment, states encounter a beleaguered national stockpile
ReplyDeleteAmy Goldstein
15-18 minutes
Azar had asked OMB that morning for $2 billion to buy respirator masks and other supplies for a depleted federal stockpile of emergency medical equipment, according to individuals familiar with the request, who spoke on the condition of anonymity about internal discussions.
The previously unreported argument turned on the request and on the budget official’s accusation that Azar had improperly lobbied Capitol Hill for money for the repository, which Azar denied, the individuals said.
The $2 billion request from HHS was cut to $500 million when the White House eventually sent Congress a supplemental budget request weeks later. White House budget officials now say the relief package enacted Friday secured $16 billion for the Strategic National Stockpile, more money than HHS had asked for.
The dispute over funding highlights tensions over a repository straining under demands from state officials. States desperate for materials from the stockpile are encountering a beleaguered system beset by years of underfunding, changing lines of authority, confusion over the allocation of supplies and a lack of transparency from the administration, according to interviews with state and federal officials and public health experts.
The stockpile holds masks, drugs, ventilators and other items in secret sites around the country. It has become a source of growing frustration for many state and hospital officials who are having trouble buying — or even locating — crucial equipment on their own to cope with the illness battering the nation.
Despite its name, it was never intended for an emergency that spans the entire nation.
“The response contains enough for multiple emergencies,” said Richard Besser, a former acting director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Now president of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, he previously led the CDC’s Coordinating Office for Terrorism Preparedness and Emergency Response that oversaw the stockpile during Hurricane Katrina. “Multiple does not mean 50 states plus territories and, within every state, every locality.”
The federal cache has been overwhelmed by urgent requests for masks, respirators, goggles, gloves and gowns in the two months since the first U.S. case of covid-19 was confirmed. Many state officials say they do not understand the standards that determine how much they will receive.
Credit...Grant Hindsley for The New York Times
ReplyDeleteThe Lost Month: How a Failure to Test Blinded the U.S. to Covid-19
Aggressive screening might have helped contain the coronavirus in the United States. But technical flaws, regulatory hurdles and lapses in leadership let it spread undetected for weeks.
Credit...Grant Hindsley for The New York Times
By Michael D. Shear, Abby Goodnough, Sheila Kaplan, Sheri Fink, Katie Thomas and Noah Weiland
March 28, 2020
WASHINGTON — Early on, the dozen federal officials charged with defending America against the coronavirus gathered day after day in the White House Situation Room, consumed by crises. They grappled with how to evacuate the United States consulate in Wuhan, China, ban Chinese travelers and extract Americans from the Diamond Princess and other cruise ships.
The members of the coronavirus task force typically devoted only five or 10 minutes, often at the end of contentious meetings, to talk about testing, several participants recalled. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, its leaders assured the others, had developed a diagnostic model that would be rolled out quickly as a first step.
But as the deadly virus from China spread with ferocity across the United States between late January and early March, large-scale testing of people who might have been infected did not happen — because of technical flaws, regulatory hurdles, business-as-usual bureaucracies and lack of leadership at multiple levels, according to interviews with more than 50 current and former public health officials, administration officials, senior scientists and company executives.
The result was a lost month, when the world’s richest country — armed with some of the most highly trained scientists and infectious disease specialists — squandered its best chance of containing the virus’s spread. Instead, Americans were left largely blind to the scale of a looming public health catastrophe.
The absence of robust screening until it was “far too late” revealed failures across the government, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former C.D.C. director. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, said the Trump administration had “incredibly limited” views of the pathogen’s potential impact. Dr. Margaret Hamburg, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said the lapse enabled “exponential growth of cases.”
The absence of robust screening until it was “far too late” revealed failures across the government, said Dr. Thomas Frieden, the former C.D.C. director. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins, said the Trump administration had “incredibly limited” views of the pathogen’s potential impact. Dr. Margaret Hamburg, the former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said the lapse enabled “exponential growth of cases.”
ReplyDeleteAnd Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, a top government scientist involved in the fight against the virus, told members of Congress that the early inability to test was “a failing” of the administration’s response to a deadly, global pandemic. “Why,” he asked later in a magazine interview, “were we not able to mobilize on a broader scale?”
Across the government, they said, three agencies responsible for detecting and combating threats like the coronavirus failed to prepare quickly enough. Even as scientists looked at China and sounded alarms, none of the agencies’ directors conveyed the urgency required to spur a no-holds-barred defense.
Dr. Robert R. Redfield, 68, a former military doctor and prominent AIDS researcher who directs the C.D.C., trusted his veteran scientists to create the world’s most precise test for the coronavirus and share it with state laboratories. When flaws in the test became apparent in February, he promised a quick fix, though it took weeks to settle on a solution.
Image
Dr. Robert R. Redfield is the head of the C.D.C.. The test his agency developed failed in February.
Dr. Robert R. Redfield is the head of the C.D.C.. The test his agency developed failed in February.Credit...Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times
The C.D.C. also tightly restricted who could get tested and was slow to conduct “community-based surveillance,” a standard screening practice to detect the virus’s reach. Had the United States been able to track its earliest movements and identify hidden hot spots, local quarantines might have confined the disease.
Dr. Stephen Hahn, 60, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, enforced regulations that paradoxically made it tougher for hospitals, private clinics and companies to deploy diagnostic tests in an emergency. Other countries that had mobilized businesses were performing tens of thousands of tests daily, compared with fewer than 100 on average in the United States, frustrating local health officials, lawmakers and desperate Americans.
ReplyDeleteAlex M. Azar II, who led the Department of Health and Human Services, oversaw the two other agencies and coordinated the government’s public health response to the pandemic. While he grew frustrated as public criticism over the testing issues intensified, he was unable to push either agency to speed up or change course.
Mr. Azar, 52, who chaired the coronavirus task force until late February, when Vice President Mike Pence took charge, had been at odds for months with the White House over other issues. The task force’s chief liaison to the president was Mick Mulvaney, the acting White House chief of staff, who was being forced out by Mr. Trump. Without high-level interest — or demands for action — the testing issue festered.
At the start of that crucial lost month, when his government could have rallied, the president was distracted by impeachment and dismissive of the threat to the public’s health or the nation’s economy. By the end of the month, Mr. Trump claimed the virus was about to dissipate in the United States, saying: “It’s going to disappear. One day — it’s like a miracle — it will disappear.”
By early March, after federal officials finally announced changes to expand testing, it was too late. With the early lapses, containment was no longer an option. The tool kit of epidemiology would shift — lockdowns, social disruption, intensive medical treatment — in hopes of mitigating the harm.
Now, the United States has more than 100,000 coronavirus cases, the most of any country in the world. Deaths are rising, cities are shuttered, the economy is sputtering and everyday life is upended. And still, many Americans sickened by the virus cannot get tested.
9:52
ReplyDeleteNobody believes you, but keep it up.