China's Nightmare Startegic Scenarios

Protesters in Tiananmen Square, 2 Jun 1989 (CNN)

Michael Colebrook, Strategy Bridge: The Rhymes of History: Beijing’s Nightmare Strategic Scenarios


History does not repeat itself. With the exception of general platitudes about the permanence of international tension and the sporadic recurrence of violent conflict, statements about historical patterns and cycles of warfare can at best lead to historiographical confirmation bias and, at worst, can prejudice policymakers into taking counterproductive and unnecessary escalatory measures.[1] Diplomats, intelligence professionals, and politicians must tread with care when approaching history and any patterns that emerge from it, especially when trying to draw parallels with present-day events. History and policy are ultimately about particulars—particular interests, particular leaders, particular decisions, and particular crises. Specific policies matter and can go a long way towards avoiding war altogether or minimizing its impact should it occur.

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WNU Editor: Of the two nightmare scenarios outlined in the above report (1) encirclement by hostile powers and (2) domestic chaos, the one that the Communist leadership in Beijing fears the most (by far) is domestic chaos. That is why the Chinese leadership are hostile to President Trump. They see his attempts to change the trading relationship between the two countries as a direct threat to their economic/political stability. But this is where Beijing's strategic vision has failed. But being uncompromising on these issues, they are only creating a backlash from the U.S., but also from every country that finds themselves (or perceive themselves) as having the short end of the stick when it comes to dealing with China.