Zero Hedge: US-China Military Conflict Deemed "Highly Likely" To "Almost Certain" Over Next 3 Years
A top independent Australia-based think tank which regularly advises the Canberra government has produced a "risk assessment" studying the likelihood of America and China going to war. Involving defense experts around the world, the study was undertaken on the heels of the US sending two carrier strike groups to sail through the South China Sea in provocative "freedom of navigation" operations.
Given that "normalization" with China — a longtime foreign policy emphasis which goes back to Nixon and Carter — appears to have gone out the window during this latter half of the Trump administration, there's lately been much forecasting on the potential for the US and China to stumble into war. While there's already for the past couple years been much ink spilled over the possibility of the US and China falling into the so-called Thucydides Trap, this latest assessment is among the most dire predictions to date in terms of conclusions reached.
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WNU Editor: I am skeptical of a China - U.S. war in the next three years. I am more worried about China getting into a conflict with one of its neighbours.
What will Australia do in such a situation? Let's see here. America is far away from Australia, is a declining world power, and may not even exist five years from now. If it's foreign enemies do not finish it off, there's a better than even chance that domestic strife will. Even if the country survives Black Lives Matter and ANTIFA would solidify their current control. If this happens, I see no possibility that the American leadership would send the country rushing to Australia's defense or confronting China.
ReplyDeleteHint: many Americans will NOT submit to rule by the tyranny and evil of Black Lives Matter or ANTIFA. I will not!! I'm pretty sure no one in the "west" will help us resist them.
Now, as for China, they are an up and coming power and will be a major world power for centuries, are near to Australia, aren't going anywhere obviously, and America in the unlikely event it even continues to exist isn't going to be of any help to Australia. They will need to qct accordingly.
I agree with the editor. A conflict between America and China isn't likely. Why should China get involved? When an enemy is destroying themselves, there's no need to get in their way!!
If China gets into a conflict with any "one" of its neighbors, I don't envision any one of them posing much a challenge to them. If they were to be facing two or three of them at one time, this could be an issue. Unfortunately I think they're smart enough to avoid such a scenario and there's a great deal of Division among China's neighbors meaning any kind of unified front by them against China seems remote.
ReplyDeleteMany in the region have relied on their parasitic relationship with America. America is currently ruled by Black Lives Matter ane ANTIFA. They hold absolute power right now and everyone except POTUS is absolutely petrified by fear of them. POTUS is little more than a figurehead right now. Certainly neither of these groups would or could challenge China. While they have incredible strength, their mental competence is lacking. A potential wild card would be if America could somehow break free of the knee these groups have on our neck.
I am worried of Xi crying like a child after 3 years when Trump is still the US president. He might call his momma.
ReplyDeleteBetter to fight China now before they will destroy everything in its path .there the most abusive nation on the planet .they won’t stop for no one once there war machine gets rolling .i want to see strict restrictions on china after we beat them in a war .right from how greedy they are on the oceans marine life .forestry pollution ,health standards how they handle there fresh food markets .they simply got to be stopped soon .
ReplyDeleteWNU,
ReplyDeleteYes, I think China has no appetite for a war with US, and a war with neighborhood is more likely, even to show them who is the boss. That said Navy in South China Sea and, of course, within an ongoing war could create a likely "accident".