Wednesday, September 29, 2021

U.S. CENTCOM General Blames President Trump For Setting Into Motion The Collapse Of The Afghan Army And Government

 

The Guardian/AP: Top US general says Afghan collapse can be traced to Trump-Taliban deal  

The Doha agreement, signed in February 2020, set a date for the US to fully withdraw troops by May 2021 

The collapse of the Afghan government and its security forces can be traced to a 2020 agreement between the Taliban and the Trump administration that promised a complete US troop withdrawal, senior Pentagon officials have told Congress. 

Gen Frank McKenzie, the head of central command, told the House armed services committee that once the US troop presence was pushed below 2,500 as part of President Joe Biden’s decision in April to complete a total withdrawal by September, the unraveling of the US-backed Afghan government accelerated.

“The signing of the Doha agreement had a really pernicious effect on the government of Afghanistan and on its military, psychological more than anything else, but we set a date – certain for when we were going to leave and when they could expect all assistance to end,” McKenzie said. 

Read more ....  

WNU Editor: Gen. Frank McKenzie says the Doha Agreement signed in February 2020 set into motion the collapse of the Afghan Army and the takeover of Afghanistan by the Taliban. 

So I decided to find out if it is true. 

The metric I looked at were Afghan security forces casualty numbers. 

My rational is that if morale was decreasing for the Afghan security forces, we would have an escalation in Taliban attacks and casualties. 

I quickly discovered that finding these numbers was not easy.

In 2018 the decision was made to classify Afghan Army casualties for security reasons. But I did find one website (link here) that put together a list of what has been disclosed and reported on (image below):

For 2018 I used 3 different sources and I came up with a number that ranged from 7,000 to 10,000 Afghan security forces killed. 

In 2019 7,000 Afghan security forces were killed (link here). 

For 2020 Former Afghan President Ghani said that in the five months after the signing of the Doha agreement, 3500 Afghan security forces were killed (link here). 

For the rest of 2020 I relied on the New York Times casualty reports (link here). 

According to the Times, approximately 2,300 Afghan security forces were killed (from August to the end of December) for a total of 5,700 afghan security forces killed in 2020. 

This 2020 casualty number is a surprise. It is lower than the preceding years. It appears that the Doha agreement did not cause a drop in morale among the Afghan forces, but the opposite, hope that the war may end. 

So when did this all change? 

The casualty count started to increase when President Trump left the White House in January 2021, and it completely explodes after President Biden declared at the end of April that the U.S. was going to leave Afghanistan. April was also the time when the Taliban started to significantly take and expand the territory it controlled. 

Bottom line. 

Contrary to what General McKenzie is saying, the Afghan war was static after the Doha agreement. Casualty numbers were actually going down, and there was no change in the tempo of operations from both sides.

Everything changed  in the spring of 2021. It looks like the Taliban made the decision that should President Biden make it official that the U.S. was leaving Afghanistan, they would then launch an offensive. 

The rest is history. 

The Taliban launched their offensive after President Biden's Afghan withdrawal speech. And while the exact number of casualties during this period is unknown, there is general agreement that Afghan security forces casualty numbers exploded in May, increased even more significantly in June and July, quickly followed by the quick collapse and disintegration of the Afghan Army and government in August.

13 comments:

  1. Yeah. The "Doha Agreement". Unlike every single other Trump policy, initiative and contract that Biden immediately trashed and canceled upon his installment, the all-powerful, iron-clad "Doha Agreement" is somehow untouchable. /Right.


    NICE,
    TRY,
    FRANK,

    R,


    ReplyDelete
  2. Gen. Frank McKenzie lost the war when he and his fellow generals emasculated themselves and refused to retire and go on TV the next day.


    Colonel Getty has more balls and is smarter than Gen. Frank McKenzie

    ReplyDelete
  3. If we had the real President none of this would have happened and you all know it!

    ReplyDelete
  4. "But why did the State Department delay the evacuation?

    The State Department delayed evacuations at the order of President Biden after Afghan President Ashraf Ghani warned that evacuating Afghan allies earlier would destroy morale and lead to the collapse of the government.

    If true, this localizes the fault directly with Biden."


    Resident Biden made the call to evacuate ass backwards.

    ReplyDelete
  5. trump made the agreement to end the war and to leave. Biden carried out that arrangement but Afghan military collapsed earlier than expected. Trump wanted out. He made the agreement with the Taliban. Nothing can change that fact. He surrendered to them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Implementation, implementation, implementation, Biden blew it, is blowing it, nothing will change that, not even your bleating about Trump.

      Delete
  6. 8:54 / Fred / Bleating One

    I will reiterate what Russ ad so many others have said.

    Yeah. The "Doha Agreement". Unlike every single other Trump policy, initiative and contract that Biden immediately trashed and canceled upon his installment, the all-powerful, iron-clad "Doha Agreement" is somehow untouchable. /Right.

    Trump pulled out of JCPOA. But Joe Bidet said:

    “The United States remains committed to preventing Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon. We are working with the P5+1 to engage Iran diplomatically and seek a return to the JCPOA,”

    So here is the trillion dollar question for Fred. Bidet did not continue Trump's pullout of JCPOA, It was an international agreement and Joe did not follow Donald's lead. So why did Bidet follow Trump's lead in Afghanistan when he said it was stupid and not not make up his mind until March 2021?

    ReplyDelete
  7. Trump made a deal wityhj the Tal;iban. simple as that. the deal? we would leave
    stop shifting blame.

    Trump's border wall turned out just as well as you'd hoped it would and it's glorious - The Poke

    ReplyDelete
  8. Once again Fred Lapides is given to explain how Joe Biden can reverse one Trump foreign policy, but not another. Fred explains not at all, but simply moves into his obstinate mode.

    Also, Fred proves he does not under stand capital investment nor contracting.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Taliban Has Failed To Honour Doha Agreement Of 2020, Never Renounced Al-Qaeda: US Military General

    Trump signed it and Biden carried it out. stop blaming Biden for what Trump did.
     trump is a loser. that is why he was a one-term president and now give me some bullshit about how he really won the election! sure. prove that liar won. go ahead. give evidence for the loser

    His followers are bootlicking morons, low lives, low IQ people who need a leader to direct them and tell them lies which the feast on

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You're classy as ever. Who was President during the withdrawal?

      Delete
  10. There is more than one way to prepare a fish for dinner.

    1. Fillet it, you need a sharp knife, and some skill, but if you do it right you get a wonderful piece of fish. The negative is that some meat is lost.

    2. Scale and gut it, it is kind of a messy process and you will get a lot of bones, but also all of the meat.

    3. Use a Bassomatic, which is what Biden did in Afghanistan

    ReplyDelete
  11. "Trump signed it and Biden carried it out."

    Fred Lapides Doctoral thesis: The previous president can bind the current president's hands.


    Maybe next time, if certain congress critters are so outraged, they can actually declare war instead of passing an AUMF.

    Like I predicted and so many others as well Fred absolutely will not answer why Bidet can reverse JCPOA but not not DOHA.

    Fred did not answer.
    Fred will not answer.

    ReplyDelete