Dimitri Simes Jr., Glenn Greenwald: Reporting from Moscow: Sanctions May Achieve the Opposite of Biden's Stated Long-Term Goals
In Russia, sanctions have taken a bite out of the Russian economy, but interviews and data suggest they cannot fulfill the West's strategic motives for imposing them.
During a visit to Brussels for the NATO summit on Thursday, President Joe Biden unveiled his latest Russia sanctions package. Biden told reporters that the U.S. and the European Union had agreed to sanction more than 300 Russian lawmakers and oligarchs, as well as several Russian defense companies.
Over the past month, Russia has overtaken both Iran and North Korea to become the most sanctioned country in the world. Some of the measures adopted by the U.S. and its European allies include the freezing nearly half of the Russian central bank’s $640 billion financial reserves, expelling several of Russia’s largest banks from the SWIFT global payment system, imposing export controls aimed at limiting Russia’s access to advanced technologies, closing down their airspace and ports to Russian planes and ships, and instituting personal sanctions against senior Russian officials and high-profile tycoons.
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WNU Editor: The Russian stock market is opening completely tomorrow .... that is something that I had not expected.
When sanctions were first introduced I predicted these measures would hurt the Russian economy. It has, but not to the harsh level that I had predicted.
So what is the future?
I expect U.S. sanctions are going to remain in place for a very long time even if a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine tomorrow. The U.S. has seized nearly half of the Russian central bank’s $640 billion financial reserves, and that is a sum of money that they are not going to return anytime soon.
I also expect European governments are going to respect these sanctions for the short term (i.e. 2022). But Europe needs cheap Russian energy to prosper, and buying expensive American LNG and hoping that countries like Qatar will bail them out (which Qatar just said they will not (link here)) is not going to work out.
There is also going to be a shift of the Russian economy away from Europe. The new focus will be on Asia and developing markets in Africa and Latin America.This is where the future economic growth of the world will come from, and they will need access to Russian resources and know-how to grow.
The Russian stock market is opening completely tomorrow .... that is something that I had not expected. - with a lot of limitations.
ReplyDeleteI know, where I am going to invest to get that Russian money.
ReplyDeleteSanctions are a long-range strategy to weaken Putin's ability to wage war. And that they eventually will as Russia's armed forces burn through reserve materiéls over several months ahead that they cannot replace. Sure, for some time brainwashed Russians will be angered, and back Putin even more. Then reality will set in. The same played out for German Nazis from the beginning of 1942 through April of 1945. There is no alternative. What Putin fears, even hates, is democracy movements--not Ukrainians. It's an ideology fight. With his admiring Trump gone, Putin felt he needed to strike while Trump's extremely divisive and weakening NATO policies still had an effect.
ReplyDeleteTrump telling Germany to increase its defense budget is divisive?
ReplyDeleteYes! Yes, it is in a room full of snowflakes.
"The same played out for German Nazis from the beginning of 1942 through April of 1945."
From that sentence I take it that you have read a far amount history. Better yet you read a fair amount of military history and WW2 history in particular.
So here is my "WTH man!" question.
We have had report after report about Germany about troops without small arms (broomsticks), planes that won't fly, ships that won't sail, etc. After all that what is to be done?
The adults in the room did not pressure Germany. If they pressured German officials off camera, it do not work. If polite, cultured and snobby society won't call a spade, a spade, what is to be done except to be blunt and be public.
Is Trump that bad? We were told with Trump gone the adults were back. Adults that use a senile old man as a front person? Those adults?
German Defense Woes
ReplyDeleteNew German Warship Fails Sea Trials Due to Tech Woes 07 FEB 2018
Is Germany's Navy Dead? July 23, 2018
“The German Navy has major problems with all its major components; submarines, surface ships, and what’s left of its naval air capability.”
“Even worse U31, the first submarine of the class, has been out of service since 2014 pending completion of repairs.” No Hurry!
German Navy's Woes Continue With Its Pair of Ex-Liberian Tankers Stuck Broken In Port JULY 10, 2018
“In a new blow to the German military, the country’s Navy has admitted that nearly half of its replenishment-at-sea capable tankers are out of commission.”
“There is no clear schedule for when the ships will be ready for duty again.”
German Navy’s new frigates have a listing problem: Report May 14, 2017
Germany’s Entire Submarine Fleet Is Out of Commission May 14, 2017
ReplyDeleteWho knew?
Did the Chancellor of Germany know? Or did she know and not give a shit!
Which US admirals knew?
Joint Chief did Staff?
NSC?
What did they do?