Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- March 30, 2022

 

Andrew Lohsen, War On The Rocks: Will Russia Create New “People’s Republics” in Ukraine? 

A month into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has a problem: The expectation that it would quickly achieve regime change and forced demilitarization through limited engagements proved overly optimistic. Russian combat units are sustaining high casualty rates and equipment losses as Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” turns into a grinding war of attrition. As Michael Kofman noted in the most recent episode of the War on the Rocks podcast, for Russia to salvage any claim of victory, Moscow might be looking to revise its war aims downward. If Putin is contemplating how he might snatch some sort of achievable victory from his shambolic military campaign, he might be considering Russian-held areas in southern and eastern Ukraine. So far, Russia has adhered to its 2014 playbook to administer areas wrested from Kyiv’s control. If it continues to follow that playbook, Russia might establish new pseudo-states similar to the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” But this depends on how the Kremlin redefines its goals in Ukraine and whether it can overcome operational challenges that were not present eight years ago. 

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Commentaries, Analysis, And Editorials -- March 30, 2022 

Ukraine has offered neutrality in talks with Russia – what would that mean? -- The Guardian  

Will Ukraine be the next Chechnya? -- Mariya Petkova, Al Jazeera  

Nato doesn't want a Third World War, but it is not de-escalating either -- Raghida Dergham, The National  

What Is the West's Objective in Ukraine? -- Michael Ignatieff, Project Syndicate  

Can Germany survive without Russian gas? -- Nik Martin and Insa Wrede, DW  

EXPLAINER: What would paying for natural gas in rubles mean? -- AP 

 Many in Mideast see hypocrisy in Western embrace of Ukraine -- Joseph Krauss, AP

Is NATO finally in Finland's future? -- Teri Schultz, DW  

Xi Doubles Down on China’s Alignment With Russia -- WPR  

China gains a foothold in Australia's backyard -- Frances Mao, BBC News 

Europe and China at a Crossroads -- The Diplomat  

We Don’t Need to Go Back to Cold War Spending—We’re Already There -- William D. Hartung, Nick Cleveland-Stout and Taylor Giorno, The Nation 

Russia, first in the headlines, is Pentagon’s No. 2 challenge -- Joe Gould and Megan Eckstein, Defense News  

Russia sanctions redraw shipping routes, cleaving East from West -- John Psaropoulos, Al Jazeera  

A World That’s More Expensive Is Starting to Destroy Demand -- David R Baker, Allison Smith & Sheela Tobben, Bloomberg  

Why Democracy Stalled in the Middle East: Economic Despair and the Triumph of the China Model -- Amaney A. Jamal and Michael Robbins, Foreign Affairs