© Alexei Nikolsky/Russian Presidential Press and Information Office/TASS
New York Times: What if Putin Didn’t Miscalculate?
The conventional wisdom is that Vladimir Putin catastrophically miscalculated.
He thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They didn’t. He thought he’d swiftly depose Volodymyr Zelensky’s government. He hasn’t. He thought he’d divide NATO. He’s united it. He thought he had sanction-proofed his economy. He’s wrecked it. He thought the Chinese would help him out. They’re hedging their bets. He thought his modernized military would make mincemeat of Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians are making mincemeat of his, at least on some fronts.
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WNU Editor: What if the conventional wisdom is wrong? What if the West is only playing into Putin’s hands once again?
I do not know the answer.
But I do know that a lot of things happen in war, and it is too soon to judge if Putin is playing a winning hand.
We're now in the phase of the media campaign where all western news outlets have to slowly manage a walkback from their initial feverish victory displays and declarations that Putin intended to turn Kiev into a pile of rubble no higher than 2 feet tall, like Raqqa in 2017.
ReplyDeleteIn an uncharacteristic twist, the NYT has at least resisted framing it as "what changed with Russian war plans this week?" sa most other outlets/officials currently are, and instead asked the honest question: "What if, in our excitement for war, we lied to you day after day and that actually helped Putin?"
The major miscalculation by Putin is the notion that the US will never elect sane leadership again. Brezhnev, Andropov and Chernenko made the same gamble 40+ years ago. Then extending the USSR in Afghanistan for some 9 years. With the US funneling arms into AFG and killing their soldiers by the thousands. Combined with the Soviets corruption and global fragility.
ReplyDeleteAnd down came The Wall in 1989 - followed by humiliation and monetary depression.
And now a replay. A resurgent Russia, floating on $100 bbl oil, attacking a supposed vulnerable nation. Who is receiving stingers and javelins and drones to kill the invading Russians. Again.
33 years later and Russia is economically ruined again. Their future under the Putin oligarchy is a dead end.
If there is miscalculation, it's his own problem.
ReplyDeleteRuss,
ReplyDeleteThe Russians were hesitant to go into Afghanistan. Supposedly they wanted a port on Indian Ocean as some people warned. They could afford to take the long game. What they could not take in the short term is Islamic imans and others crossing the borders into Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kirghizstan and Turkmenistan. The Revolution in Afghanistan was faltering. The Soviets advised their Afghan counterparts with a go slow approach. The Russians advisers were not listened-to.
If it was a faltering revolution alone, I don't think the Russians would have went into Afghanistan.
"Then extending the USSR in Afghanistan for some 9 years. "