Is The Future Of American Warfare Unfolding In Ukraine?

Pallets of ammunition, weapons and other equipment bound for Ukraine are processed through the 436th Aerial Port Squadron at Dover Air Force Base, Del., Feb. 10, 2022.  

Phillips Payson O’Brien, The Atlantic: The Future of American Warfare Is Unfolding in Ukraine  

Aid to Ukrainian forces is achieving more than the long U.S. intervention in Afghanistan did. 

American military aid to Ukraine has been remarkably effective, especially in comparison with the long, ill-fated U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan. A recent statement by General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, helps explain why. “Ukrainians are not asking for anyone to fight for them,” Milley said. “They don’t want American soldiers, or British, or German, or French, or anybody else to fight for them. They will fight for themselves.” The Ukrainians want only the means to defend themselves against Russian invaders, he said, adding that the United States would provide support “for as long as it takes.” By providing advanced weaponry and reliable intelligence, the United States and its allies have allowed Ukraine to inflict large losses on Russian armed forces and roll back earlier Russian territorial gains. 

America’s failure in Afghanistan, by contrast, seemed so complete in 2021 that it may have encouraged Russian President Vladimir Putin to launch his full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The American response to this year’s crisis—providing a high level of military support without deploying American forces—is not just the best way to help Ukraine secure its independence and thwart Putin. It also offers a model for how the U.S. should define its international military involvement. 

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WNU Editor: The above post from the Atlantic is making the assumption that the tide and momentum is on the Ukraine (and U.S.) side, and that Russia is on the verge of defeat. That the lesson the US should learn from this war is that the US can achieve its strategic objectives by providing a huge commitment in financial and military aid to an ally without necessarily providing boots on the ground. And The Atlantic is not alone in predicting what the outcome will be .... Russia Risks Knockout Blow in War as Putin Hits Rock Bottom (DNYUZ/Daily Beast). 

As to what is my take.  The above author is premature in predicting what the outcome in Ukraine will be. IMHO this war is far from over, and in fact, many are fearing (myself included) that we are about to enter an even more bloodier and destructive phase. 

Over the years of running this blog I have lost count on how many articles and analysis that I have posted that repeat what the above analysis from the Atlantic is saying. It feels like only yesterday that I posted commentary that U.S. policy will succeed in Afghanistan, and it can be used elsewhere to bring Western values and stability. Ditto in Iraq. That the US presence in Syria will bring stability and security to our allies the Kurds. Or better still, aiding in the overthrow of Qaddafi will bring peace and prosperity to Libya. Sighhh .... all the pundits and experts were wrong.

Will Ukraine be another example of US defeat and withdrawal? Or will it represent the future of American warfare? I say wait and see. Maybe the history of US intervention will not be repeating itself in Ukraine. But I doubt it.