DNYUZ/New York Times: Ukraine Keeps Downing Russian Drones, but Price Tag Is High
Exploding drones are lumbering and noisy and relatively easy to shoot from the sky and, over the New Year’s weekend, Ukraine says, its military downed every single one of about 80 that Russia sent the country’s way.
“Such results have never been achieved before,” a Ukrainian air force spokesman said on Tuesday.
But some military experts wonder if the successes are sustainable.
Ukraine is getting more and more skilled at knocking down drones, but there is a growing imbalance: Many of its defensive weapons like surface-to-air missiles cost far more than the drones do. And that, some military experts say, may favor Moscow over the long haul.
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Update: Iranian-made drones cost as little as $20,000 to make, but up to $500,000 to shoot down, a growing concern in Ukraine, report says (Business Insider)
WNU Editor: Unless you are shooting down drones that are targeting critical infrastructure, the economics do not make sense (see tweet below). I am also willing to bet that these Iranian drones are cheaper than $20,000.
🇷🇺🇮🇷✈️🇺🇦"One "Geran-2" costs 20 000 USD, while the cost of launching one S-300 missile can be 140 000 USD, and launching NASAMS, which are also trying to shoot down the "Geran-2", costs 500 000 USD" - The New York Times
— AZ 🛰🌏🌍🌎 (@AZgeopolitics) January 4, 2023
Not to mention that it's SOP to launch two interceptors for every incoming. I think it's pretty safe to say that wherever the Patriot battery winds up it will not be used against anything moving at drone speed. Even using semi-affordable S-300's, $280k is a lot of cash to dish out while the majority of the drones, despite Kiev's claims to the contrary, are still making it through to knock out the power every single day.
ReplyDeleteOne wonders if it would be more cost effective to just absorb the blows and redirect all that spending to booting up transformer manufacturing, since those repairs seem to be required each attack regardless and the supply of 330kv equipment is finite.
WNU pearl clutching
ReplyDeleteI am surprised there are not more anti-drone weapons. The world was given a heads up with the Yemenis/Iranians targeting the Saudis and UAE.
Maybe it is because it is not their ox getting gored that the acquisitions process is moving at a stately pace.
Price per intercept will go down if you believe in Moore's law.
I believe in Moore's law, which makes WNU's posts obnoxious.
The Ukrainians seem to have recently "solved" the drone problem. The last several Russian attacks have seen most, if not all, of the drones shot down.
ReplyDeleteAnd it's not because of these high priced missile systems. It is expanding traditional anti-aircraft fire which is much, much cheaper. Besides the German Gepard shooting 35mm, we are seeing technicals mounted with heavy machine guns, and foot patrols taking them out.
The Shahed 136 is easily identified by the sound it makes and gives people armed with such weapons a lot of time to identify and shoot it down. Not even night time matters because they are also mounting searchlights on the technicals too. You don't even need to be soldiers to do this provided you are a good shooter. Territorial defenses and local civil defense units can do this. Putting an old 1930's era dshk machine gun on a truck is a cheap countermeasure. Once trained and organized, local AA units can probably protect any targets in their area. We will probably see critical infrastructure protected by several layers of local AA - foot near the targets themselves, technicals farther out, and Gepards and similar SPAA on the frontline.
The Ukrainians aren't stupid. They will be destroying the drones more with these kinds of weapons and less with the expensive missiles which will be reserved for the larger Russian precision missiles.
Right now the Russian trolls are trying to push the narrative that Ukraine is only shooting done these cheap drones with expensive systems. That's their latest attempt to introduce support fatigue in the West. The stories we are seeing now in the Western media point out a legitimate concern, but almost always lag the actual battlefield. I don't expect reports showing how Ukraine is defeating the drones (effectively by cost) until another month or so. But we are already seeing this on YouTube which is where most of the real on-time reporting on the war is being done.
War is a continuous system of action and response. The side that learns more quick than the other does better in the war. The Ukrainians have shown they can respond very quickly to new Russian tactics. We are already seeing that being done here. We'll see if I am right after a few more weeks. In short - while this is a serious problem, I think the Ukrainians are solving it.
Chris
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/24/905789/were-not-prepared-for-the-end-of-moores-law/
ReplyDeletehttps://www.wired.com/story/moores-law-really-dead/
https://builtin.com/hardware/moores-law
Bless your heart, Moore's Law requires the extreme levels of faith that you're offering up.
https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1610356031368101892?s=20
ReplyDeleteVery curious security footage from Kiev 2 days ago, when all incoming drones were successfully shot down in the oblast. At the very end of the clip you can see all the lights in the city flick off at once, likely due to mayor Klitchsko flicking the switch as a funny prank.
Moore's law work very well within a stated domain.
ReplyDeletekeep up on you fucking math bozo.
I believe you think what you wrote made sense, which makes your post obnoxious.
ReplyDeleteSo 9:12, you do not know how t0o define a function. Good to know.
ReplyDelete