Ukrainian service members fire an M777 howitzer at a frontline in Donetsk, Ukraine, on 23 November. Photograph: RFE/RL/Serhii Nuzhnenko/Reuters
George Friedman, Geopolitical Futures: The State of Play in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine seems permanent. Neither side appears capable of destroying the opposing force or articulating what it would take to reach a peace agreement. The Russians are speaking to Belarus, India and anyone else they might find, but no one can help enough on the battlefield or in the munitions factory to turn the tide. The Ukrainians are speaking to the United States, NATO and anyone else who will listen so that they will continue to receive weapons – perhaps even some new ones. But Ukraine hasn’t broken Russia yet, concerned as it is with preventing the collapse of the country, and doing so may prove difficult. On the battlefield, there is movement on both sides, but movement doesn’t carry with it the taste of victory. When, then, do wars end if the leadership will not concede?
History shows there are several answers to that question.
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WNU Editor: This is a war of attrition, and it is going to go on for a long time. When it comes to manpower, equipment, and firepower, the odds do not favor Ukraine.
When it comes to training , morale , and quality of weapons it does favour ukraine
ReplyDelete"When it comes to manpower, equipment, and firepower, the odds do not favor Ukraine."
ReplyDeleteI don't think WNU understand artillery. He might want to plot e^-x.
Manpower:
North Koreans are in the occupied territories. Why?
Right now, Ukraine has no economy or tax base. much of the US money is going to pay pensions, government salaries and operations. I have read those costs are somewhere between 5-10 billion dollars a month. there is no or very little tax income coming in. This thing drags on as long as the US political class can keep giving billions of dollars, about 100 billion a year. If the money stops, Ukraine, despite its hatred of all things Russians and will to fight, will collapse.
ReplyDeleteThere is lots of propaganda out there and it is hard to sort through. If what I wrote is correct, then either the US taxpayer is fooked or Ukraine is fooked because nothing is free.
Ron
Would Ron like to see a Russian dominated Western Europe, where Russia calls the shots for Germany and France? That has a cost too.
ReplyDeleteJust think if Russia dominated France and Great Britain. What would the security council look like? That could have happened. It still could happen.
A country gobbles up Estonia, Ukraine and other countries and it snowballs. Pretty soon that snowball is bigger than whatever you got.
In ancient Sumeria Sargon at one time was second fiddle. He was #2. Lugal was numero uno. Sargon struck north up the river valley gobbling up cities and armies. He circled around and hit the Gutians in the mountains. People thought he would take horrendous casualties in the mountains and get chewed up. he didn't. He had snowballed. With hos larger army he headed south and unseated Lugal. Who outside of s history buff or, historian or acheologist remembers Lugal? But we know of Sargon.
Just because the Soviet Union was inefficient and could not hold onto the 15 countries that broke away does not mean that Russia could not reconquer them, hold onto them and grow. Would history repeat itself exactly and a reconstituted "USSR" fail for sure? Well the tech is different and the world outside Russia and those 15 countries is different.
Do you really want to take a chance with a new Russian empire?
The Russians and others might throw you a bone and argue that digesting Ukraine will take a long time, so there is no worries.
I will tell you this. The Russian could liquidate the entire Ukrainian people and reseed Ukraine with Russians and you would see no difference in overall population in a generation. During that time they could gobble up the Baltic States without pause.
Don't fight now, WTF would you do about conflict in the Baltic states, when China has Russia's back?
People willing to give up Ukraine are not willing to designate Ukraine as Czechoslovakia and the Baltic States as Poland.
The problem with the US budget and US debt is not the declining spending for the DoD, but the untouchable entitlements that are ballooning and it has been that way for 40 years. But cry some more over money spent in Ukraine.
Entitlements are growing and we are importing more destitute people to go on welfare rolls in an age of automation. But Ukraine is the problem. Can you make that case using pie charts of federal outlays or a Pareto chart and not be laughed out of the room?
A Fortress America approach had the same problems the Eastern Roman Empire's army had at Adrianople after it penned in after being hit in the flanks.
Weapons require space tactically, operationally and strategically. If you do not know that do not bother to show up unless you are boarding a train for a camp.
JFC, but I wonder how many sleeper personas there are.
Far from permanent. Lets see what the "Kiev Regime" is being called in 1 years time. The Lviv government? The Warsaw government?
ReplyDeleteIt does not matter what I want. I'm not even sure what I said is true because there is so much propaganda being spewed about everything. All of your lengthy chatter was not a debate on whether Ukraine collapses if the US stops funding their countries operational costs. that is the only point I made. I can't stop the US government from using my tax dollars or spending money it will never have so what influence would my yay or nay on Ukraine and Russia have.
ReplyDeleteRon