A Son Of The New American Revolution: Is Ukraine On the Verge of Launching A Counter Offensive at Bakhmut?
I received the following from a friend who is well plugged in with the Ukrainian side. I consider his information reliable:
Volodomyr Zelensky visited Chasov Yar today to kick off an offensive to relieve Bakhmut and push the Russians back. A number of armored and artillery brigades are being moved down from the North to support such a relief operation.
Chasov Yar may be four or so miles from Bakhmut. Zelensky can no longer chance a visit to Bakhmut as he did earlier this month.
As we have noted before there are somewhere between 15 to 20,000 UKA fighting inside Bakhmut, and the UKA area of control is shrinking and also bifurcated between a larger group in the western center of the city and the remainder in the north east of the city.
Sources report that Leopard and Challenger tanks have been moved into position for the relief operation, even though the room for tank operations is not great because of the bad weather, rain and mud.
Read more ....
WNU Editor: In the past few weeks there has been an enormous amount of reporting from Ukrainian and Western media sources of a possible Ukraine counter offensive to push Russian forces out of Bakhmut. Ukraine assembling an army of 80,000 men have been widely reported.
I hope this information is not true.
I understand from the Russian side that in the Bakhmut region there are approximate 25,000 Wagnar assault troops, backed by approximately 40,000 Russian military personal. I also understand that Russia can quickly deploy thousands more if the need arises. You do not have to be a military genius to know that launching an offensive in an environment where the terrain is open and muddy while exposing your forces to massive artillery fire can only end in one thing. Massive losses in both men and equipment.
This blog has been labeling Bakhmut as a meat grinder since the end of last year. If this offensive happens, I will be labeling Bakhmut as a slaughter house.
Update #1: It looks like Ukraine President Zelensky is pouring cold water on a possible Ukraine offensive .... No Ukraine offensive without more weapons – Zelensky (BBC).
Update #2: Ukraine has just lost a critical part of the city to Russian forces .... Wagner in ‘full control’ of AZOM plant in Bakhmut, reports Russian state media (CNN). So much for the Western media media narrative that Russia's offensive is stalling.
More News On the Battle For Bakhmut
Ukraine eyes an offensive around Bakhmut, as Russian momentum stalls -- CNN
Ukraine signals counterattack to come 'very soon' as Wagner mercenaries suffer large losses -- CNBC
Ukraine plans counter-offensive as Russian troops 'losing steam' in Bakhmut -- NYPost
Ukraine Says No Letup On Bakhmut Front Despite Claims Russian Offensive Stalling -- RFE
Russia's Bakhmut offensive stalls due to 'extreme attrition' of forces -- Euronews
If there are Western European tanks arriving at the front, it spells out only one thing.
ReplyDeleteRussian incompetence.
next issue
A post for the supposed 80,000 man offensive from yesterday
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Anonymous said...
it doesn't matter where they attack. Russians will do the same thing they have done since they got stalled last year.
The Ukrainians attack. The Russians will fall back, and bomb the offensive as they retreat. They will continue to retreat, until they decide to set up defensive posture.
Then the Russians will finally stall the Ukrainian offensive. Then the Russians will continue to bomb the Ukrainians into raw meat. Rinse and repeat.
It is sickeningly predictable.
One last thing. A 80,000 man offensive? I find it had to believe. Depending on your force structure that is about 5 to 6 divisions or 23-26 combat brigades.
Do the Ukrainians have the tanks, IFVs, mortars , Arty and other equipment to out fit such a force? Do they have the capability to get such a robust element to the front unscathed? Who knows? But I have my doubts based on current Ukrainian equipment losses, attrited industrial capacity and promised NATO delivery numbers.
One of the other reasons I find this hard to believe is ..... that these are the same guys who said they would be in Crimea by Christmas. That did not happen.
We shall see.
If the Ukrainians can mass this many forces into one area without the Russians knowing about it or doing preventive attacks against it, then the head of Russian intelligence need to be fired.. Simple as that.
Incompetence.
But then again, we saw the same thing in spring in 2004 with US intel in Iraq. Major out break,...no pre warning. No one was relived. / fired.
The real question: what happens next after Ukraine runs out of bodies to send to the Grinder? Does NATO go in? Only a matter of time before we find out
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