BBC: Ukraine war: Satellite images reveal Russian defences before major assault
A beach resort bristling with fortifications. A major road lined with anti-tank ditches. Satellite analysis by BBC Verify has uncovered some of the extensive defences built by Russia as it prepares for a major Ukrainian counter-attack.
After months of stalemate, the expected assault is likely to be a crucial test for Ukraine as it seeks to prove it can achieve significant battlefield gains with the weapons it has received from the West.
By examining hundreds of satellite images, the BBC has identified some key points in the significant build-up of trenches and other fortifications in southern Ukraine since October.
These four locations offer an insight into what Russia expects from the counter-offensive, and what defences Ukrainian forces might encounter.
Read more ....
Update #1: ‘Dragon’s Teeth,’ Hedgehogs and Minefields: How Russia Is Preparing to Defend Occupied Ukrainian Areas (Moscow Times)
Update #2: Military briefing: how Russia is fortifying its frontline for Ukraine's counteroffensive (Financial Post)
WNU Editor: Many Western pundits are hyping the coming counteroffensive .... Will Ukraine’s offensive model Desert Storm or the Battle of the Bulge? (The Hill), while others are voicing caution .... Ukraine’s Coming Counteroffensive? Lower Your Aim (CEPA). More here .... Has Ukraine’s counter-offensive been overhyped? (The Spectator).
As to what is my take.
Russia retreated from major portions of Ukraine last fall because they did not have the manpower or resources to hold it. That is definitely not the case today. There are now almost 500,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine, with about 300,000 in reserve (if not more) on the border.
Russia has also had the time to build multiple fortifications (see above BBC post), and have positioned their artillery in the creation of multiple kill zones for any Ukraine advance. Russia aircraft and air defenses have also been positioned to control the skies, or at worse, deny Ukraine any air support. Any invading army needs air superiority, or at best, air support. Ukraine's air force has been largely decimated, and it will take months for the F-16s to arrive.
And then there is the issue of firepower and munitions. For Ukraine's counteroffensive to succeed, Ukraine will need to launch multiple and massive missile and artillery barrages against Russian defenses before any attack. But as the battle for Bakhmut clearly illustrated. the evidence seems to indicate that Ukraine lacks the fire power when compared to what Russia can unleash.
They've been repeating the 3 Rs: run run and run some more.
ReplyDeleteIt will not be without massive casualties
ReplyDeleteNeed help with this one.
ReplyDeletehttps://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/ukraine-army-falling-apart-shooting-the-officers-who-order-them-into-no-win-battle
Supposedly ukie army.
Captain kills colonel for trying to send his company on suicide mission.
There is so much crap out there. This may be true or more trash.
Can any one confirm?
"There are now almost 500,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine, with about 300,000 in reserve (if not more) on the border. "
ReplyDeleteAnd that boys and girls is why Putin is recruiting Cubans.
There is some sort of cognitive dissonance going on.
No, no cognitive dissonance. They are doing the same thing the Ukies are doing, hiring foreign volunteers. Did the Russians not recuirt Syrians at one time? Maybe.
ReplyDeleteIt is a logical thing. Get as many people as you can. More people means more fire power.
I remember a Mexican citizen ,great guy, he had been in the US army in Viet nam. We still get those guys and some from Canada too.
Harold Charles "Hal" Turner (born March 15, 1962) is an American far-right political commentator and convicted felon from North Bergen, New Jersey.
ReplyDeleteTurner's viewpoints typically encompass Holocaust denial,[1] conspiracy theories,[citation needed] white supremacy,[2] and have included calls for assassination of government officials. In August 2010, he was convicted for making threats against three federal judges with the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, for which he spent two years in prison.
Turner has sporadically hosted The Hal Turner Show, usually on shortwave radio station WBCQ, since 2002, as well as a corresponding blog, which has changed URLs frequently and has spread hoaxes and fake news.
In one of his first official acts in the Oval Office, Biden signed an executive order that redefined the terms “sex,” “sexual orientation” and “gender identity.”
ReplyDeleteSo Joe Biden's Supreme court pick cannot define what a woman is, but apprently senile Joe can.
12:44
ReplyDeleteI agree turner is a jerk. He had that 50000 Chinese invaded Maine bs story.
But like a broken clock he can be right.
My question is.
Is the film true. Can it be verified?
That is what I want to know.
I am NOT saying it is true. I am NOT saying it is fake.
I am trying to find out which it is.
And!!
Thank you for your reply to my question.
Turner could be right, but you need some corroboration.
ReplyDeleteFragging is probably going on on both sides. So you give anecdotal evidence (maybe), but not statistics.
Hell German soldiers killed 12 year old German boys in WW2. Near the end when the Hitler Youth were properly brainwashed and put on the front lines with soldiers in Western Poland or Eastern Germany, the hopped-up on propaganda boys wanted to fire at the Russians right away and give their -position away. What did the soldiers do? Murder the boy.
Deny air support. I do not think WNU gets it. you can provide air support with standoff weapons. Maybe not as good sometimes, but still it is air support.
ReplyDeleteAlso the Air defense (AD) artillery of the Russians have had significant losses.
The Russian AD needs to be untouched, because they have a good record of killing Russian jets.
You need to divide air defense into levels above ground.
Kherson and across the river is a logical area for an offensive with the goal to put Crimea under artillery fire. I disagree about air superiority, what is needed is electromagnetic and drone superiority fix targets to enable missile and artillery attacks. Times are changing.
ReplyDeleteStorm shadow and French scalp will smash that bridge in short order
DeleteUkraine has already lost the war, it's better to stop clowning around and deliver once and for all the failure of the current corrupt zelenko government
ReplyDeleteThe Ukrainians are going to do this offensive. It is too late to stop it.
ReplyDeleteUnless they can pull a rabbit out of their hat, Their chances of accomplishing anything are minimal.
What a tragedy. They just came out with a report , I think it was in the WSJ. About how we were right the whole time , though many said it was a lie. The ukies put untrained troops by the hundreds, if not thousands into Bakhmut. The reason, To save their tier 1 units. What a gratuitous waste of manpower.
Now those Tier one units are going to be committed. I hope it was worth it, otherwise the boys in Bakhmut died for nothing.
Fazman predicts a repeat of the battle of 73easting. I disagree. The Iraqs had GEN ONE T72s. Sucky maintenance, and no air cover. and a host of other problems the Russians do not have.
You also need to remember that the US had total control of the air, lots of arty and great intel. The big plus was that The US had DU Abrams.
Which , if you do not know, at that time could not be destroyed by conventional munitions unless hit from the rear or you used a 155mm type round. So our boys were in starships and the Iraqis in ACME rockets. No even close match up.
Here it will be different.