Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin at a Kremlin summit in March. Alexei Mayshev / RIA Novosti / kremlin.ru
Moscow Times: Prigozhin's Insurrection Creates Headaches for Russia-China Alliance, Experts Say
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against Moscow will have stoked alarm in China and could throw sand in the wheels of the “no-limits” strategic partnership between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, experts said on Sunday.
After a 24-hour armed insurrection in which Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries seized control of parts of the southern city of Rostov-on-Don and sent a convoy of troops hundreds of kilometers north towards Moscow, analysts said Beijing would see Putin’s failure to keep the mercenary boss in check as smacking of “incompetence.”
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Update #1: China, Russia Officials Meet in Beijing After Threat to Putin (Bloomberg)
Update #2: China's foreign minister meets Russian official in Beijing after rebellion (Financial Times)
WNU Editor: Beijing is definitely concerned. Having some elements of your armed forces, albeit a mercenary military force that is independent from the main military, going into rebellion mode is not a reassuring sign.
But Beijing is also seeing what I am seeing .... From what I have seen heard, and read, there was little if any public support in Russia for this rebellion, and more importantly, all media (main stream and social), political, military, and economic leaders immediately rallied around the Kremlin when the Wagners started their march towards Moscow. I am also now learning that 90% of the forces that make up the Wagner Group refused to participate in this rebellion. The fact that this rebellion also quickly ended with little loss of life is also a reassuring sign.
My prediction.
Russia, headed by Putin, is a vital political, economic, military, and strategic ally for Beijing. I can easily see Beijing doubling down on their support for Putin, at least that is the feedback that I am now getting from my friends and contacts in China.
China is correct to think that Putin’s failure to keep the mercenary boss in check as smacking of “incompetence.” In fact, it raises many questions. Why was such a large mercenary army permitted in Russia? How is this Wagner mercenary army financed? Why was this Wagner mercenary army was permitted to operate on the front lines in Ukraine? Is the Russian army not able to handle the Ukrainians by themselves? Furthermore, it also raises questions about why the Wagner group was not reigned in earlier--because there was a lot of discontent expressed by Yevgeny Prigozhin in prior months that should have warned Putin about what was coming. Yes, this Wagner affair does not make Putin look good at all.
ReplyDeleteWell for one the Wagner forces are/were not just some independent fighting force completely separate from Russian Forces, it is was permitted, supported and designed by Prigg and Putin to be more of an more flexible expeditionary extension of the Russian military but with plausible deniability so Putin can use to advance his interests in other countries without it being seen a Russian military operation abroad! And he was permitted to operate on frontlines because aside from being Putins friend and Wagner a large formidable force, Putin uses his ability to mediate between rival military commanders and factions to keep absolute control of armed forces
ReplyDeleteYep
ReplyDeleteIt was a smart move on the Russians part. Like a French foreign legion. No one cares if they get mauled or lose a lot of men. So they make a good attack force. Also it is a good way to reduce your prison population without contaminating the regular army with individuals of questionable morals.
But back to the main point....
People read too much into this. It is the forest through the trees. The Chinese have a lot of effort invested in their Russian relationship. The Chinese also do not look just one month or one year out. Their time line encompasses scores of years and decades in strategic thinking.
And you must realize, because of ongoing American-Chinese poor relationship, the Chinese look at Russia as a war time partner to secure the Northern Pacific in case of a Taiwan "incident"
They are not just going to throw that away. Like Putin with Erdogon, they just may double down. We will see.
They had their Tiananmen square and attempted color revolution in Hong Kong. They understand these things, but they will be watching.
All hail Prigozhin and Wagner!!!
ReplyDeleteSome interesting responses, however, I am wondering "How is the Wagner mercenary army financed?" Anyone?
ReplyDeleteIt is better for china to walk away with the wagner issue, an ally with wagner is trust issue and at same time russia forgiving an act of treason is something that exposed weakness on russian part.
ReplyDelete